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Recommendations: 0
Overall, Roth ac disappointed. Was too conservative with this account. The glaring one is that "shoulda-coulda-woulda" idea CBK. Leaving that aside, I seemed almost reluctant to invest in this account at times. Perhaps it was the behavior of PBR's price, and the plunge of ORI after the spin-off was put on hold. Okay, there were whackdowns of both MEMS and TC also. I notice I was more methodical with purchases after Oct- TNK, more NGPC, KCG.
Positives: Obviously, Primero (PPP) with a really nice gain in a few months. It ran higher, but that was the positive ruling on a tax issue (A plus, but I don't think it actually means as much to PPP as the price reaction). NRGY was another good play, especially the double down. Finally, there was the SFL run-up in Sept to provide a nice gain.
Top 11 1. SDRL 2. SO 3. PSEC 4. VZ 5. PGP 6. GNI 7. KCG 8. MEMS 9. TNK 10. NNA 11. TSU
Lessons learned, or almost learned 1. Revisiting existing ideas: PPP, NRGY, MEMS, PGP, CBK (almost) were great replays
2. Shake-off a bad outcome: The OSG disaster could have tainted my tanker perspective. I didn't let it- TNK, NNA & FRO have been great additions since
3. Patience: Waiting for the whack-down to settle before nibbles and bites on TNK & NNA.
4. More diligence: My Spidey senses should have been active on the OSG dangers e.g. how can a company fail to resolve financing issues over a 10 or 11 month time-frame if it supposedly has a majority of its vessels unencumbered? OSG's complicated reporting style should have also been a hint.
5. Being too greedy: GNI is a risky idea as a wind-down play. I held out for $90 instead of taking the $88 (a 22% gain in three months). Flip side to this was GMLP, offer was $26.20 and I set my limit @ $26.
6. Understanding a sector: Exiting most tanker positions in early Sept was not perfect, but it was very, very timely. No gains or small gains is much better than major blood-letting in the port. Can I apply this to other sectors?
Final results: Overall, 10.4% vs 10.2% account-blend target, and 16-ish% for S&P
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