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Author: Hohum777 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 1693  
Subject: Re: HoHum's Q4 wrap-up Date: 1/5/2013 10:23 AM
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Overall, Roth ac disappointed. Was too conservative with this account. The glaring one is that
"shoulda-coulda-woulda" idea CBK. Leaving that aside, I seemed almost reluctant to invest in
this account at times. Perhaps it was the behavior of PBR's price, and the plunge of ORI after
the spin-off was put on hold. Okay, there were whackdowns of both MEMS and TC also. I notice
I was more methodical with purchases after Oct- TNK, more NGPC, KCG.

Positives: Obviously, Primero (PPP) with a really nice gain in a few months. It ran higher,
but that was the positive ruling on a tax issue (A plus, but I don't think it actually means
as much to PPP as the price reaction). NRGY was another good play, especially the double
down. Finally, there was the SFL run-up in Sept to provide a nice gain.

Top 11
1. SDRL
2. SO
3. PSEC
4. VZ
5. PGP
6. GNI
7. KCG
8. MEMS
9. TNK
10. NNA
11. TSU


Lessons learned, or almost learned
1. Revisiting existing ideas: PPP, NRGY, MEMS, PGP, CBK (almost) were great replays

2. Shake-off a bad outcome: The OSG disaster could have tainted my tanker perspective.
I didn't let it- TNK, NNA & FRO have been great additions since

3. Patience: Waiting for the whack-down to settle before nibbles and bites on TNK & NNA.

4. More diligence: My Spidey senses should have been active on the OSG dangers e.g. how can
a company fail to resolve financing issues over a 10 or 11 month time-frame if it
supposedly has a majority of its vessels unencumbered? OSG's complicated reporting
style should have also been a hint.

5. Being too greedy: GNI is a risky idea as a wind-down play. I held out for $90 instead
of taking the $88 (a 22% gain in three months). Flip side to this was GMLP, offer was $26.20
and I set my limit @ $26.

6. Understanding a sector: Exiting most tanker positions in early Sept was not perfect, but
it was very, very timely. No gains or small gains is much better than major blood-letting
in the port. Can I apply this to other sectors?

Final results: Overall, 10.4% vs 10.2% account-blend target, and 16-ish% for S&P
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