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Author: jackcrow Big gold star, 5000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 35397  
Subject: Re: Time to buy closed end funds? Date: 6/24/2013 10:22 PM
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Paul,

Bernanke has signaled that QE is going to wind down progressively and then end. At some point when they see their unemployment target on the horizon they will raise rates. The bleeding isn't over. There could be as much as a 50% hair cut coming for some funds and 25% is likely. We simply cannot come off less than zero without more bloodshed as some of these wild eyed 30% premiums get priced down.

Markets try to anticipate and they tend to operate quarter to quarter and occasionally out to 5 quarters. Bernanke wants to be done with QE and then sit on those bonds by mid next year but holds the reserve card of winding down slower or faster. A bunch of Fed watchers are voting Sept for the beginning of the smaller purchases others argue Dec. The starting time may dictate the ending time of QE. So there is some wait and see what happens in Sept. floating around.

So Bernanke is looking 2 years out and the markets are looking at day to wiggles and next quarters returns while casting a wary eye to a longer future. One of the oldest saws on the Street is "don't fight the Fed".

just my 2 cents

jack
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