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I agree with your demand analysis. The steel, chemical and fertilizer companies are having a swell time switching to it. But on the supply side there was very strong production growth for 2011. Seems 2012 will be the same way. And those use-it-or-lose-it leases aren't going away quickly enough...

I do agree that production economics are not sustainable, but right now we're not seeing that in the actual numbers yet.

I guess its smart to buy the low cost producer because they can survive the longest. I'm just not sold on UPL's value creation for shareholders... Of course, if you can time the turnaround then the more leveraged companies will do better (like playing gold with FCX in early 2000's).

Thanks for the post.
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