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Author: UnkaBob Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 63935  
Subject: Pengrowth Opinions Date: 9/13/2012 4:23 PM
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My brother has held Pengrowth for a long long time. Recently the share price has been declining and he has asked me for my opinion on the future.
My opinion is that the price of gas is down because of shale-gas and because of the general economy. Shale-gas has not been fully priced out yet and could subside but the economy is going to be down for three to five years and at our age,ten years is forever. His problem is should he take a forty percent loss on a lot of money or hold tight and hope that things improve.

My reading of the Pengrowth financials say that a dividend cut is coming soon and that will make the price crash or the cut has been priced in already.I was nailed when Perpetual cut and am still more than fifty percent underwater.

Does anyone have an opinion on Pengrowth?

Thanks

Bob
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Author: tim443 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 63027 of 63935
Subject: Re: Pengrowth Opinions Date: 9/13/2012 5:40 PM
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My reading of the Pengrowth financials say that a dividend cut is coming soon and that will make the price crash or the cut has been priced in already.I was nailed when Perpetual cut and am still more than fifty percent underwater.

Bob,

Pengrowth already had a recent dividend cut, payout for Jul and Aug was just 4 cents versus 7 cents in the previous months?

Current yield a reasonable 6.92%.


http://www.google.ca/finance?q=TSE%3APGF&ei=kk9SUMDbIIb_...

I don't follow it but frankly methinks it is a bit late to be thinking about selling this fellow?


Tim

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Author: TMFinept Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 63028 of 63935
Subject: Re: Pengrowth Opinions Date: 9/16/2012 11:54 PM
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Generally speaking, I don't think that it's ever too late (or too early) to sell. If you have two some place better to put the money, that's where it ought to be. Move the money to an investment that is going to deliver returns that are more in line with your investing horizon and risk tolerance.

You don't need to go down with a sinking ship just because your luggage is still on board.

I don't know the first thing about Pengrowth and I cannot speak to your situation or your brother's (though I know the wonderful feeling of having owned PMT) so I'm not offering advice. Maybe it takes off tomorrow and makes everyone rich.

All I'm saying is that you are never obligated to stay invested. Even if you've lost 90%, you can still put the remaining 10% to good use. No point in losing it too. It's better off where it's going to work for you, even if it's much less than it was formerly.

The only exception would be if the commissions would be costlier than the remaining value of the investment.

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Author: UnkaBob Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 63029 of 63935
Subject: Re: Pengrowth Opinions Date: 9/17/2012 1:31 AM
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Thanks for the opinions. It seems to be recovering slightly and I missed the dividend cut, it was needed.
Another divi cut could lower the price to the level of perpetual.

Thanks

Bob

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Author: tim443 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 63030 of 63935
Subject: Re: Pengrowth Opinions Date: 9/17/2012 11:48 AM
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Bob

Has it occurred to you that you may be a prime candidate to just buy the banks and utilities for the 4-5% dividends?

I find playing with oil and gas guys and some miners sort of fun but am finding the game is starting to pale on me. I'm moving to the larger fellows and am slowly migrating my trading account to large dividend payers in our two TFSAs.

We all have different circumstances so it is difficult to give opinions. I don't live on my investments, frankly I haven't taken anything out of them in years.

Regards

Tim

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Author: UnkaBob Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 63031 of 63935
Subject: Re: Pengrowth Opinions Date: 9/17/2012 9:31 PM
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Tim:
I hate the banks! I have believed that they are overpriced for twenty years but they stay overpriced. The only bank security that I felt made sense were the high dividend preferreds in 20009 and I missed them.

My blue chip stocks are Husky, AT&T, Fortis preferreds and Hawaiian Electric. I missed out on Freeport-McMoran last month when they were down to $32.

I am presently 75% cash with nowhere to put it that I trust.

At present, I use my returns to cover winter ih Hawaii but I hear that hotel bargains will be unlikely this year. Airfares are about the same this year.

Bob

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Author: tim443 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 63032 of 63935
Subject: Re: Pengrowth Opinions Date: 9/17/2012 9:55 PM
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Funny thing is I hate the banks as well but I do own a lot of Altagas, CHL, PennWest, TRP and now even Canyon Services (small position).

I have very little cash, they don't pay you to hold it anymore.

Tim

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