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Author: jrschenk One star, 50 posts CAPS All Star Global Fool Motley Fool One Everlasting Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 217  
Subject: Re: Do you still believe in Nokia? Date: 10/20/2012 6:50 AM
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Personally I wouldn't count on any dividend from Nokia next year - I think this has already been factored into the price.

I've been a Nokia shareholder for a couple of yeas now: even before it was an Inside Value rec. About 2 years ago you couldn't find any positive articles about Nokia, and the comments were also typically negative. Over the last year or so, there has been a steady increase in the number of positive articles and comments about Nokia.

The story about Nokia is a complicated one. The problems started long before Elop became CEO. I would say they started with Ollila and the management structure he set up, which was some kind of matrix. The matrix structure effectively created a gridlock in decision making. This problem persisted long enough that it eventually came to a crisis point, and Nokia had no other option but to look outside for an OS. The deal they got with Microsoft was their best longterm option.

Elop has been second guessed ever since he arrived at Nokia, but eventually details emerge that show he is making reasonable choices.
We're at the point now that WP8 will be coming to market. Coupled with a Windows8 for the tablet and desktop, this will give the user a consistent interface across the ecosystem. IMHO, the metro UI is a good interface for tablets and smartphones. In fact, because it is a fresh start, it has the chance to be disruptive in the mobile space.
I also like to think of the parallels between the mobile space and how desktop space is divided up between Linux, Mac and PC. Parallels not in terms of market share, but in terms of where the PC fits in. Apple is closed, Linux is totally open, and PC is in the middle. Each approach has their advantages and disadvantages.

So the case for Nokia is based on WP8 gaining market share, followed by Nokia becoming the dominant player in the WP market space. Nokia negotiated for special privileges in the WP space which will help them gain market share in the WP space. Microsoft has the resources to develop the WP space - and they need to succeed.

So yeah, I still believe in Nokia.

-Rob
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