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Author: anarcho Three stars, 500 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 768  
Subject: Re: DNA pipeline Date: 1/20/2000 3:22 PM
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Phase 3 only 50 % ?
If it would only be 50 % , I would not be interested in biotechnology .
TMF once said it was 85 % , but I say it's 90 % .

...
So , if you start with 10,000 compounds in the preclinical stage , only 200 will go to phase I .
20 will go to phase II .
6 will go to phase III .
And 5.4 will eventually get FDA approval !
The cost ?
$ 100 - 300 - 500 million per drug .


According to the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America. Only 1 in 5000 drugs that enter preclinical testing makes it to market. So you more than doubled (almost tripled even) the actual number by saying that 5.4 out of 10,000 compounds make it to market. You also obviously have a sense of humor by putting a decimal point in your educated estimates.

So trust me when I say that its nowhere near 90% approval.

Max

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