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No. of Recommendations: 5
Convinced to stick with The Plan (my plan) I have sold so many of my holdings when they reached my target prices + 10-20%, that I find myself short of investments and uncharacteristically, investing ideas.

Phillips 66 is 19% off its 52-week high and currently sports a P/E of 7.1 and a dividend of 2.12% (payable tomorrow.) This downstream energy company with a Mcap of $35b is rated 4 stars by S&P, 3 stars by Morningstar and 8/10 by Reuters. Earnings are expected to remain flat for the next 2 quarters, earning $2.23 and $2.15 for Q2 & Q3 respectively. LT Debt/Equity is 0.3 and the payout ratio is 12.3.

My method for building positions is simple; I ask myself what the product demand will be in 5 years and how sure I am of my guesstimate. I set up a worst-case scenario to estimate the risk of loss of substantial capital. PSX currently meets all my low hurdles but not nearly in the realm of MUST BUY NOW. If the stock price continues to fall, I will build up the position accordingly. If not, it’s still a win, just less than it could have been.

Disclosure: No position, considering beginning a small position (maybe 100 shares) @ ~$56.00. Not a screaming buy but I have more faith right now in pricing strength for oil, biotech and healthcare than most other products and am sitting on a (too-) high percentage of cash. There are also many P66 stations near me, all of them busy and constant reminders of the strength of energy pricing. I am long COP, CVX and still studying a small O&G support company.

Feel free to talk me out of this. Short of great companies at fire-sale prices, which I'm not finding in my screens, I’m in no hurry to buy anything.

Dan
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