Pick your time frame(Are we looking at 1 day returns, 1 week, 1 year, what?), how often you want to adjust(Do you change things daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, semi-annually, annually, every 2 years, every half-decade, every decade, every couple decades?) and I think in some cases index funds can look bad. I do think now is a time when the short-term(And even 5 years IMO isn't that long) risks of stock rear their head and so what happens? Some people who thought they were LTBH flee to the sidelines or show their market timing stripes. Others like me, stick to my guns believing in the long run things will be alright I did know stocks go down and to be prepared for it(Maybe you missed the lesson of stocks going down 1 in 4 years on average and some bad bears from before I wonder?). The question for you is are you OK with how you invest and how confident are you in achieving those goals? I'm 99.9% OK with my investments and 99.9% confident I'll achieve my goals(Heisenberg uncertainty accounts for the remaining .1% in each case.)http://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/bogle_speechesequity.html has some interesting notes IF you are the type to invest and not change often.(In almost 30 years over half of the funds died off and only a couple handful beat the broad market aka the Wilshire 5000.)JB
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