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TrenchRat did a poll on whether we would retest the September lows for the Naz:
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=16706071

This is a variation on that theme:
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=16727456


When I was in high school, I was interested in probability. I took a poll to see who would win the school elections. I posted my predictions on the bulletin board just before the polls closed. (So as not to influence the results.) I picked every winner!

I did this for the next several elections and missed only one winner. That was the time I decided to get fancy and poll a selected number of persons from each class (Freshman, etc.) instead of just taking all comers.

Peter :}



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LOL Peter......Why am "I" in that list!! :-))))

I don't belong there!! :-))
I just try to set my sails right, to catch the wind from the right direction .....so that they don't collaps!! LOL

Janny
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You're in the list because you posted a response with some links to the previous Kaputulation poll.

Watch out, Janny. Your rep is growing!

Peter LOL

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Watch out, Janny. Your rep is growing!

Don't like that......really don't like that!! :-(((
I'm just a dummy and don't like to be in the spotlights!!
I think I'm going to step back a little and let people forget about me!!

Janny

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I think I'm going to step back a little and let people forget about me!!

Oh, Janny. I didn't mean to alarm you.

Remember, no matter whether you are known or ignored in the greater Fool community, we love you here!

Peter



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I think I'm going to step back a little and let people forget about me!!



Oh, no! First we wouldn't forget about you!!!!!

Second your insite is too valuable!!!

Jean
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Jean.....you wrote : "Second your insite is too valuable!!!"

I really doubt it!!
When someone on my message:
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=16729094
can write:
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=16731043 and get 16 rec's for it........I doubt it , that there are others, that think my insight is valuable!!!

I just saw, that the "big one's" over there are laughing their head off about me!!!! :-((((
Oh well.....perhaps I'm to sensible, but I think I'll keep to "MY home" here and let the others rant for themselves!!!!!


Janny
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When someone on my message:
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=16729094
can write:
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=16731043 and get 16 rec's for it........I doubt it , that there are others, that think my insight is valuable!!!


But Janny, how many of those who gave the "recs" are actually successful traders. They're more likely people who just enjoy "diarrhea of the mouth." Some peopley think they are hot stuff and get a joy out of spouting off at the mouth--the others wish they could spout off so well and give a "rec." They don't care about successful trading. They just care about how eloquent someone appears to be.

If we didn't have people like this (who would buy just about any line of Bull-diddly), then many of the elected officials we've had in this country would never have been elected. They dish out the BS and others buy into it. (I'm guessing it is the same in Switzerland.)

Ed
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Janny...you just keep doing what you do...think he was dishing Mish more than you...your insight has merit and is valuable to many people...it's not easy to venture onto other boards and offer opinions...some people take it the wrong way...as I believe was what happened in this case...the "big ones" as you refer to them are not laughing at you, believe me, those recs are directed at Mish...now don't fret over this thing...FWIW...someone asked a question about leaps (I think) which you posted a link to...well, he posted a thank you...so that proves my theory...you, Janny Gruenig, are appreciated!!!...take care, swiss miss...Mike
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I wouldn't pay any atention to such Garbage - sounds like he enjoys hearing himself BRAY
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lotta highdollar words in that post
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I'm Sorry about that I was just eritated by theat kind of reteric
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yeah everynow and then someone gets up on a box and lets it all hang out. it part of amusement enrich entertain and so forth
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Janny...you just keep doing what you do...think he was dishing Mish more than you...your insight has merit and is valuable to many people...it's not easy to venture onto other boards and offer opinions...some people take it the wrong way...as I believe was what happened in this case...the "big ones" as you refer to them are not laughing at you, believe me, those recs are directed at Mish...

Mike, I agree, but would like to add that I think the "putdown" of the LTBH mantra might have been the source of alot of the rec's....

The LTBH mantra of TMF once held attraction for me........it made sense......historically and particularly through the 90's. Who predicted Enron? 6 months ago Calpine was touted as a fantastic investment and a solid player in the energy markets........No I am not smart enough.

I can only do my best to notice trends, look at things I am interested in and make my best possible guesses. I can come to the Fool and read posts that I agree with or disagree with. Here I have the opportunity to see Rat's, Bullets, Howard Roarks, Wooleyboogers, Lex4018's, Paters, BlindSquirrels and many, many others comments, thoughts and observations.



I think if you, Janny, had been posting on the board longer you would have been included on the list of "pros"!!!!!

It's hard sometimes for me to get across in writing what I'm really trying to say...it's too easy for some things to be misunderstood.

Whatever, Don't stop your RANTING on this board!!!!!!!!!!!

Jean

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Jean,

I don't think I got it wrong!!!

I was talking about my "daily rant" in my post , and part of the answer was:
I tend to tune out the Roosters and smile when the Hens cackle, glad they have made their egg for that day.

It just caught me as a slap in the face!!

Oh well......I think it was all my fault anyway!! Mike was right in saying, that it is difficult to venture over to another board and think you can just post there as if everybody know you!!

Thanks a lot for comforting me!! :-)))

Janny

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Hi Janny,

I do hate to see people get hurt on the boards. It's sadly very easily done (I have done it myself accidentally) when so may of the normal non-verbal cues are missing.

Anyway, I just wanted to say that your warm welcome has made me read the US boards for the first time. I'm a Red Star poster on the UK boards but had never ventured over here until this week really.

Thank-you for your vibrancy and warmth. And as for the big boys they were small too once :-)

Cheers

Helen
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Doesn't matter if you got it right or wrong you were sharing your work. If that's not what it's all about then I've wasted my $29 dollars. I think an apology is in order.

bannh
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Doesn't matter if you got it right or wrong you were sharing your work. If that's not what it's all about then I've wasted my $29 dollars. I think an apology is in order.

bannh


Oh Barbara.......you're a love...., but it really is of no use to get further into the matter!! :-)))
That will only sow bad blood and that is the last thing I want!! :-))

Please don't get into trouble because of me!!!! :-))

Janny
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bannh...I want to thank you for posting your thoughts on Rat's board this morning, #30309...right on the mark...can you do me a favor please...wanted to use your name in this post, but can't read invisible ink...no offense intended...we all have our reasons for revealing or not disclosing personal information...but if you feel like it...enough on that subject...thanks...Mike
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I don't mind a little trouble for myself but I don't want to cause you any. What happened over there is the very reason lurkers keep lurking and it's not right.

bannh
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My real name is Barbara Hicks. Oh and thanks for letting me know you agreed.

bannh
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Hi Barbara!!

Sorry....when I wrote, I didn't see, that you had allready posted on the Rat's board!! :-)))

Don't worry...be happy!! :-)))

http://members.aol.com/pinkbreez/smiley.html

Janny
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Janny, I'm still catching up on reading these posts, but I had to comment on this one. I'm sorry the other boards you post to aren't as friendly as this one is. It is one the reasons all of us have stayed here at STT. Just like you,I've gotten my feelings hurt when posting other places and expecting the responses to be like they are here--rational, thoughtful, and helpful for the most part.

And while it's true that you can't expect to go over to other boards and have them treat you like family, that's not your fault! It's their problem.

Possibly the repsonder to your post was just having a bad day. Some of these guys just seem to need to tear other people down. It's kinda sad.

As has been previously posted, you can rant here all you want! We love you. You are part of our family. If, with the changes in TMF, this family goes it's separate ways (I hope not!), you can always rant to me personally...

Don't ever stop being who you are!
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Same reason I hang out here. Besides I didn't get the warm welcome on other boards that I got here.

bannh
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Besides I didn't get the warm welcome on other boards that I got here.


It's the thermostat that Cal installed here! Keeps the temperature from getting too cold or to hot!

Jean
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There are boards that foster objectivity and idea sharing. You can tell which ones they are: posters are treated with respect. Trading boards tend to be this way, because traders just want real information. they don't have a bias to be long or short. they have a bias to making money, consistently.

This current market is hard on the longs. Many of us traders don't feel the same daily pressures as the LTB&H camp is currently experiencing. If you want to understand what i am saying, do this: Imagine you are in a trade that is going horribly wrong.. you are losing your butt.... you know what all those terrible feelings are like... heart pounding, tight throat, tunnel vision etc.... It is killing you until you make a decisive move.

Well, that is how it is for the ltb&h crowd. But it is relentless. They are conditioned to hold and those yucky feelings last and last.

A trader just closes out a money-losing trade. An investor who won't sell money-losing positions gets cranky.

U might want to stay away from the bulls. They can be pretty nasty about this time in a bear market. Hope this helps ;-) ~j
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One other thing: you were at a Broadband bandwagon.

We all know what broaband looks like and it ain't been pretty for a long time.

Here is a simple equation to help remember: Broadband + ltb&h = :-(

~j
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Good to see you posting here, Helen. Have I seen you in the UK Den?

Sandy
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By Rebecca Thomas / SmartMoney.com


As January goes, so goes the year.

It's an old Wall Street adage that—though not foolproof—has rung true more than 90% of the time since 1950. The theory holds that stock-market action in January is an excellent barometer for the rest of the year.

By this indicator, the 1.6% decline in the S&P 500 index* this January portends a third consecutive year of negative stock returns. The last time equities declined for three years in a row was in 1939-41, when the United States was on the brink of entering World War II.

Talk to market experts and you'll find that many scoff at such silly forecasting tools. But not every strategist is quick to dismiss the likelihood of another down year for equities.

"We're comfortable with our view that the market will probably end this year lower," says J.P. Morgan chief strategist Doug Cliggott, our fourth-ranked pundit.

At around 21, the price-to-earnings ratio on the S&P 500, based on consensus forward 12-month earnings, has been greater just three times, in 1999, 2000 and 2001, he explains. And in two of them, "when the market was this expensive at the start of the year, it actually went down."

Stocks are looking rich to some of our pundits based on another measure, the price/earnings-to-growth, or PEG, ratio.

Because the PEG ratio of the S&P 500 is at a loftier level now than during the months leading up to the 1987 crash, our No. 2-ranked pundit, Merrill Lynch's Richard Bernstein, recently reduced his recommended equity exposure to 50% from 60%—giving him the lowest stock allocation among Wall Street's leading strategists.

The stock market, Bernstein explains, appears to have crossed the thin line between a rally in anticipation of improving fundamentals and a speculative bubble. The technology sector, in particular, "appears to be the most expensive in the last 18 years" and "would not appear undervalued even if the sector's earnings were twice as good as current forecasts."

While Bernstein's year-end price target for the S&P 500 implies a modest 5% gain, he says investors "should not completely rule out" the possibility of another down year.

But a majority of our pundits see things differently.

Ed Yardeni, Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown's chief strategist, says the market's P/E "is exactly where it should be if you subscribe to the model, as I do, that 1 divided by the 10-year Treasury bond yield is roughly fair value."

Although Yardeni thinks the stock market may already have discounted much of this year's earnings recovery, he's relatively bullish on equities, if only because expectations for a rosier 2003 should gain greater weight as 2002 progresses.

"What matters most is what the markets think earnings are," says Yardeni. "We all know that the market's forward, not backward, looking."

Garzarelli Capital's Elaine Garzarelli agrees: "You want to be in the market when there's a lot of pessimism, when you're at the bottom of the cycle, not the top."

Like these two, Jeffrey Applegate, chief investment strategist at Lehman Brothers, thinks the market can move higher once investors start focusing on the unfolding earnings recovery story.

"Never, when the Fed funds rate has been so low and the yield curve so steep, has there failed to be a recovery in profits," he says. "The normal cyclical event is going to play out."

But what if it doesn't? That's what has Cliggott worried. Although some restocking of inventory is likely to boost activity in the first half of this year, the strategist sees "no follow-through" in consumer demand or business investment.

While a consensus of economists surveyed by Thomson Financial/First Call puts 2002 S&P 500 profit growth at 15% to 16%, Cliggott thinks "we'll be lucky to have flat earnings this year." Even UBS Warburg's Ed Kerschner—last year's most vociferous Wall Street bull—estimates year-over-year profit growth of just 4%.

Question is, will the "P's" come down if the expected "E's" never materialize?
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