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hold
sell

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Only $63B market cap. Why not twice that?
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I voted "Sell", but you really needed a few more options in there. If you had "sell some as a hedge, but hold the rest" I would have picked that one instead.

- Joe -
- Who just did just that -
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I think what may be a tepid response by Wall street tomorrow will blow them out of the water by the end of the week :)

I just went to the store, and talked with one of the guys there, he said he was extremely excited about what was coming...no idea what to make of it, but it seems good :)
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or sell some calls to pay for buying some puts.

0xF00L
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I think what may be a tepid response by Wall street tomorrow will blow them out of the water by the end of the week :)


That's the usual pattern- a drop during and after Keynote as the speculators who rode the hype get out of the stock (doesn't matter whether it's good news or not, these are just momentum players bailing), then a few days later you get a better sign of the real market reaction.
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I voted "Sell", but you really needed a few more options in there. If you had "sell some as a hedge, but hold the rest" I would have picked that one instead.

- Joe -
- Who just did just that -


Ditto

Sold my calls along with the shares in my IRA, but held onto the shares in my normal account.

I might write some covered calls or buy some puts tomorrow if AAPL holds at $76 for the first hour or peaks up to $76.50+. But I previously wrote some covered calls that I plan to buy back, along with rebuying in my IRA, so I'm already going into a probable dip with a plan in hand.

4aapl
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No. of Recommendations: 10
Hi everyone, I first want to say that I really enjoy this fools website where I get to read everyones opinion or views on Apple stock. I bought 1200 plus shares of APPL back when it was in the high 40's. I was really just trying to find a stock that had potential for gain in the long term. Being in the Mid 70's is beyond my wildest expectations. I know that if I sell tommorow morning that the stock will probably go through the roof with my luck so I am just going to ride it long for the rest of the year. I live here in Hawaii (Makakilo) and have visited the Apple store in Ala Moana shopping center a few times since buying the stock. This place is like the last liquor store around before a ban on booze the next day. Its ridicious. I couldn't understand all the hipe about Apple's Ipod so my bought my youngest son one and was totally amazed. Since then bought one for my oldest a Senior at University of Hawaii(use it for sometype of download of lectures) and then another one for my wife. Plus numerous accessories. I am totally blown away with how fast you get this engraved Ipod from China in a week. I told my oldest son to go and buy me the new top of the line Mac(will have to learn how to use this) when the new ones appear. I hope that the transistion will be easy since I have been using Windows since retiring from the Navy in 92.Anyway, if Apple is as good as I think it is I think I might be taking the Long road, if not its my mad money and I never thought that three months after I bought it, it would be in the mid 70's. Happy New Year to everyone and thanks for all of the great posts.I have really learned a lot.

mahalo

Stephen
Makakilo, Hawaii
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Blue and many others say sell (but they've been saying sell for 3 months), so maybe they're right now?
-chicagobob

------

a minivan? i hope it has auto-door open with the wireless entry...

since these polls don't usually ask about options, i said 'sell' but really
i meant buy feb puts. today i got feb75 puts for $340 each.
(note: all contract identifiers are there, call or put, month expiration, strike price
and cost of purchase)

for those of you keeping score (i know i am) i started last quarter with
some nov50 puts, those expired worthless. then december 50s, same thing
now i'm holding jan62.50 puts that i got for $120 and these feb75puts which
i bought this morning.

if AAPL falls to say, $65 then i would have gotten back all of the cash that i put
into apple puts over this last quarter, such is the grind and benefit of leveraged
options positions.

here goes,
-][
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a minivan? i hope it has auto-door open with the wireless entry...

Yup. A 3 year old girl and a new boy next month meant that our 10 year old Camery was just too small. The *cough* mini-van is a 2003 Honda Odyssey (actually I'm embarrassed to admit it but its very nice).

since these polls don't usually ask about options, i said 'sell' but really i meant buy feb puts. today i got feb75 puts for $340 each

Ok. So, puts I get the short term leverage thing. I suppose the bigger question is holding all the AAPL the best plan for the next few years, or is today the high? I'm certain that Apple will be announcing some great things tomorrow, but its Wall St. that I care about.

Apple could easily hit a PE contraction (easily imaginable, especially if consumer spending slows down, nahhhh) that would cause the stock to lose $15 in no time and stay there for quite a while.

Last spring, it dropped from almost $45 after the stock split, down to almost $36 in June. Yea, I guess that 4 - 5 months isn't that much in the big scheme of things, but I bet it was enough to squeeze out a lot of investors while the financial media was saying that the the "Year of the iPod Was Over" (ooops!)

So, (thinking out loud here) of course that will be the meme *yet again* this spring (same as it was for each year for the past 4+ years -- well actually the original meme was "No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame.").

I suppose the real question is suppose Apple sold 10 million last quarter (or whatever), can they keep yup with the projections and sell 30 - 35 million next year or are they saturated in the marketplace? Even if ASP goes down next year, Wall St. will still respect them in the morning (I think that on Wall St. that means give them cab fare and slam the door behind them).

Well, thanks a lot everyone, in case you can't tell, I'm still sitting on the fence, but probably will get some Feb puts.

-=Bob
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Last spring, it dropped from almost $45 after the stock split, down to almost $36 in June. Yea, I guess that 4 - 5 months isn't that much in the big scheme of things, but I bet it was enough to squeeze out a lot of investors while the financial media was saying that the the "Year of the iPod Was Over" (ooops!)

Yea, that hurt. Not for those holding onto their shares, but for anyone buying shorter term calls, it ate the money away.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=AAPL&a=00&b=7&c=2005&d=06&e=10&f=2005&g=d

Well, thanks a lot everyone, in case you can't tell, I'm still sitting on the fence, but probably will get some Feb puts.

You could always move from the "all or nothing" approach and just look at selling some shares. Preferably some that you've had for over a year, and possibly even specifying which shares to minimize your current tax payments.

But it all depends on how you are investing. It's a whole different game if you think you need to diversify, as opposed to just trying to make some extra money off of a potential dip.

4aapl
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Blue and many others say sell (but they've been saying sell for 3 months), so maybe they're right now?

Broken clocks are right twice a day. That's no reason to get one.

If you're concerned that AAPL may drop, put in a trailing stop loss order. If the Bears are right, your stock will sell. On the other hand, if they continue to be wrong, your stock does not sell.

The nice thing about trailing stop losses, is that your trigger point moves up in lock step with the stock. This is especially nice when a stock is a fast climber like AAPL.

I'd set your trailing stop loss trigger at $2.00.
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or sell some calls to pay for buying some puts.

That's the dumbest advice I've ever seen.
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Actually at this point, I'm thinking about rebalancing & diversification (but hopefully not de-worsification). AAPL has grown to over 20% of my portfolio. It has so out performed everything else its not even close.

-Bob
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f AAPL falls to say, $65 then i would have gotten back all of the cash that i put
into apple puts over this last quarter


Why would you expect a different result from the same action? I would think that three consecutive losses would tell you that your strategy ain't working.
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Why would you expect a different result from the same action? I would think that three consecutive losses would tell you that your strategy ain't working.
-GT

---------

because it's not the same action?
you must be riffing on the idea that expecting different results
from the same action is the sign of insanity
and that may be true if you're trying to squeeze blood from a turnip
(same turnip, same squeeze... no blood)

it's like earlier this year when i was buying calls when AAPL was 33 for
a few trading hours in late spring. before that moment i had purchased
calls when the stock was higher, i had started when AAPL was 41
then it fell my calls collapsed in value. and yet i bought more calls
same action? then it fell more and i bought more calls. silly me

then when it spiked down to 33.85 i doubled everything and bought more calls

same action and i was expecting different results. as it turned out
the stock ripped up and i held and held. i was getting a different result

it's kinda like that, but with puts and with AAPL at a different market cap
and with the markets in a different place. luckily for me, 3 years of reaping
the benefits of AAPL rising using calls has afforded me the luxury of missing
several times and still having the cash to keep locking in highly leveraged
positions at higher prices.

-][
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or sell some calls to pay for buying some puts.

That's the dumbest advice I've ever seen.
-GT

-----------

is that a comment on the advice, or what you've seen?

it gets kinda complicated if you're not used to big numbers and stuff
but if you have a large stock position
then selling calls gets you cash
and using that cash to buy puts, puts you in a position of
having a put position to capture leveraged returns if the stock falls
using a 'sell call' position to buy it means that the calls that you sold
could be purchased back to preserve your stock.
so if AAPL falls after that action, you used the collateral of your stock value
to buy a put position that increases by a multiple of 200-500%
then a portion of that gain is used to close out the sold call position
so you keep your shares, gain on the put position
and finance the entire thing with the value of the stocks at the time.

i suppose if you don't do this sort of thing regularly it doesn't leap
out at you as a possible strategy, the downside being that you
diversify your stock position, which 4aapl has posted here is larger
than needed. so the downside is similar to simply selling some to diversify
but the upside is a capital gain using someone else's money.

it's tough, this crazy financial market with all its financial tools
heh. financial tools... hehe. but if that's the worst advice you've ever seen
you should spend some time in a realtor's office.

-][
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i suppose if you don't do this sort of thing regularly it doesn't leap
out at you as a possible strategy, the downside being that you
diversify your stock position, which 4aapl has posted here is larger
than needed. so the downside is similar to simply selling some to diversify
but the upside is a capital gain using someone else's money.


It wasn't me this time, but it's the same idea.

If you're generally happy with your holdings, but want to get out a bit to help diversify, you could sell off 1000 shares today.

But, if you're not in a huge rush, and are holding out for a little more money, maybe you want to look at selling some covered calls. January 80 calls are selling for $1.65, so if I was happy to sell for $80 in less than 2 weeks, I could write these. That would be a $4 gain, along with the $1.65. A $5.65 gain on a $76 item is a nice 7.4% gain. And in less than 2 weeks.

Assuming a 2 week period, that works out to a 545% annualized gain. That kicks the socks off of the 100% gain you're expecting in AAPL this year!

Or instead, you can use that money to buy puts with. Jan 72.5 puts have a bid of $1.50 right now. So, you can write the covered calls, buy these puts, pay commissions on both trades, and still have some money left over for a nice dinner.

You'd then make money if the stock went down, and you'd also make money if the stock went up, though your gains on the upside would be capped at $4. If AAPL took off on a tear like Urban Outfitters or Rambus did today, you'd only get your $4 gain instead of a 15-25% gain. But that's the price you pay.

So GT, what ever happened to that excel spreadsheet that you were going to post? I'll be very very happy if your 100% gains this year turn out, but it would be interesting to see your estimates before earnings come out next week.

4aapl
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looking at the posts, most active investors suggest selling them? another case of buy on the rumor, sell on the news?
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or sell some calls to pay for buying some puts.

That's the dumbest advice I've ever seen.


Well you either have lead a charmed life, or perhaps could explain your
negativity twards this strategy.

The original poster was polling sell vs hold, after already
selling some. Seems Chicago is a bit nervous with the stocks valuation.
This is a cheap way to get some downside protection and some time to make
a decision. Blue and 4appl have already explained the strategy in more detail.

Perhaps you aren't interested in this particular strategy, but it does make sense
in certain situations.

0xF00L
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You'd then make money if the stock went down, and you'd also make money if the stock went up, though your gains on the upside would be capped at $4. If AAPL took off on a tear like Urban Outfitters or Rambus did today, you'd only get your $4 gain instead of a 15-25% gain. But that's the price you pay.

Geez, what kind of idiot says things like this <grin>

BTW, as with all options and several types of investing related tools (like margin), this isn't something to just jump into. If you're not familiar with options, keep score on paper the first time. And when you do start, start small.

You can lose a bunch of money with options, even if you think you know what you're doing. It's not as safe as using just straight stock, but you can also make much larger % returns, or in this case cover your butt in case of a drop.

Looks like some of my orders went through just after the market opened (Jan '06 Puts at 75 for $2.40, and I wrote Feb '06 Calls at 80 for $3.10). I have a few other orders in the ether, but for now it's time to catch another 20 winks.

4aapl
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