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Author: rpanton Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Ticker Guide CAPS All Star Global Fool SN Explorer 1 Mission Team Member Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 46  
Subject: POT Financial Data - Value Points Date: 4/17/2012 10:04 AM
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This is a MAJOR update due to a new data source and some may differ from previous posts due to original filed and not re-stated results.
I have maintained or expanded the previous data plus new CASH FLOW data and there could be future changes as I correct or add to the presentation.
To keep the presentation viewable, I have taken the first year out but it is used for CAGR calculations for 7 years data, 13 years for Section 6.
For easier viewing of the complete data, use the 'format for printing' link at the bottom of this sheet.

Explanation of the historical data presented:

Section 1: Trailing 12 month data for the periods ending in the last 8 quarters and the preceding 4 years. CAGR calculated using last 5 quarter and first 3 year avgs.
Section 2: High and Low Price and Enterprise Value Ratios (EV = Price - Cash net of LT Debt) to help indicate ranges and value points.
Section 3: Valuation Scenarios calculated from the average of the past 5 quarters projected forward 5.5 years with the rate of return discounted back 5 years to today.
Section 4: Supporting Balance Sheet and Income Statement Data for the periods used above.
Section 5: Quarterly Results for the past 8 quarters and the latest quarter for the previous 4 years.
Section 6: 12 Years of Selected Operational and Per Share Data with CAGR calculated using the first 3 years and last 3 year averages. (Previously 10y Summary post)
Section 7: NEW Cash Flow Analysis looking 3 ways including Purchase of Business and Owner Earnings (Net Income + D&A - CapEx). Rolling 5 year averages smooth out spending cycles.

RP

Q - 4

Potash Corporation of SaskatchewanPrice 43.82 TTM P/E 12.4 EPS Yld 8.0% TTM EV/E 13.8 4/17/12
POT Net Cash -4.69 Pr/Sales 4.3 FCF Yield 3.2% EV/Sales 4.8

PE Range 13.5 P/FCF 31.1 Div Yld 0.5% EV/FCF 34.4
(this Q) 12.0 P/BV 4.8 Dividend 0.24 EV/BV 5.3 V 5.6.6
SECTION 1: Per Share Data

|------ previous 4 years ------| |---------------------- last 8 quarters TTM ----------------------------|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTM PER SHARE AND OTHER DATA Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 | Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 | Dec-10 | Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 | Dec-11 | % CAGR

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
High Price 16.35 50.63 44.48 41.37 | 42.81 40.04 51.10 | 51.68 | 63.97 61.80 62.60 | 51.96 | 24.8%
Low Price 11.28 32.45 15.85 27.92 | 32.76 28.63 27.95 | 44.22 | 50.25 50.09 43.06 | 38.42 | 27.9%
| | | | |
TTM REVENUES per SHARE 3.99 5.51 10.67 4.48 | 5.36 6.01 6.53 | 7.66 | 8.22 9.25 10.11 | 10.15 | 17.4%

| | | | |
Sequential Change in Revenues 1.5% 8.3% 7.2% -16.3% | 19.6% 12.1% 8.7% | 17.3% | 7.3% 12.5% 9.3% | 0.4% | 0.0%
Y o Y Change in Revenue -3.4% 38.1% 93.6% -58.0% | -44.0% -20.6% 22.1% | 71.0% | 53.4% 53.9% 54.8% | 32.5% | 0.0%


FCF per Share 0.22 1.12 1.90 -0.99 | -0.31 0.69 0.85 | 1.08 | 1.04 1.16 1.47 | 1.41 | 0.0%

| | | | |
Sequential Change in FCF -405.0% 8.3% -1.8% 69.4% | -68.4% -322.4% 23.1% | 26.6% | -3.6% 11.9% 26.4% | -4.0% | 0.0%
Y o Y Change in FCF -55.1% 411.5% 69.2% -151.8% | -122.0% 262.4% -246.3% | -209.3% | -434.1% 68.1% 72.7% | 31.0% | 0.00

| | | | |
EPS (Diluted - Normalized) 0.65 1.13 3.59 1.09 | 1.24 1.55 1.72 | 1.98 | 2.33 2.77 3.27 | 3.52 | 34.8%

EPS (Basic) 0.68 1.17 3.81 1.11 | 1.27 1.59 1.76 | 2.04 | 2.39 2.84 3.35 | 3.60 | 34.6%
EPS (Diluted) 0.65 1.13 3.59 1.09 | 1.24 1.55 1.72 | 1.98 | 2.33 2.77 3.27 | 3.52 | 34.8%
| | | | |
Y o Y Growth in EPS (TTM) 20.4% 73.8% 217.7% -69.6% | -63.0% -40.8% 8.9% | 81.7% | 87.9% 78.7% 90.1% | 77.8% | 0.0%


Retained Earnings 1.35 2.34 2.52 3.69 | 4.09 4.46 4.99 | 3.26 | 3.68 4.57 5.30 | 6.00 | 29.6%
Common Equity 2.95 6.34 5.18 7.32 | 7.82 7.38 8.79 | 7.98 | 8.40 9.18 8.72 | 9.14 | 20.3%

| | | | |
Sequential Growth 7.3% 17.2% -11.8% 10.9% | 6.8% -5.6% 19.1% | -9.2% | 5.3% 9.3% -5.0% | 4.8% | 0.0%
Y o Y Change in Book Value 28.8% 114.9% -18.3% 41.3% | 41.2% 19.0% 33.2% | 9.0% | 7.4% 24.4% -0.8% | 14.5% | 0.0%
| | | | |
Cash Net of LT Debt (per share) (1.66) (0.73) (3.03) (4.13) | (4.36) (3.75) (3.77) | (5.67) | (5.62) (5.03) (4.78) | (4.69) | 34.2%

| | | | |
Dupont Analysis (components of ROE) TTM | | | | |

Asset Turnover (Revenue/Assets) 60.6% 53.9% 92.2% 30.8% | 35.0% 40.9% 40.1% | 41.9% | 44.0% 48.8% 54.7% | 53.6% | 56.3%
Net Margin (Income/Revenue) 16.8% 21.1% 37.0% 24.8% | 23.7% 26.4% 26.9% | 27.6% | 29.7% 31.0% 33.3% | 35.4% | 25.7%
Leverage (Assets/Equity) 223.6% 161.4% 223.3% 198.8% | 195.7% 198.9% 185.1% | 229.6% | 222.4% 206.5% 211.9% | 207.2% | 205.1%

Return on Shareholders' Equity (TT 22.7% 18.3% 76.2% 15.2% | 16.2% 21.5% 20.0% | 26.5% | 29.1% 31.3% 38.6% | 39.3% | 30.1%
| | | | |
Return on Average Assets 10.2% 11.4% 34.1% 7.6% | 8.3% 10.8% 10.8% | 11.6% | 13.1% 15.2% 18.2% | 19.0% | 14.6%

Total Debt / Total Capital 46.3% 19.4% 50.1% 41.2% | 40.6% 40.9% 35.1% | 53.1% | 49.6% 41.7% 41.1% | 39.3% | 40.4%

Total Liabilities / Total Assets 55.3% 38.1% 55.2% 49.7% | 48.9% 49.7% 46.0% | 56.4% | 55.0% 51.6% 52.8% | 51.7% | 50.5%

Common Shares Out 935.6 946.9 922.4 887.9 | 888.4 889.1 890.9 | 886.4 | 854.0 855.0 856.0 | 855.7 | -2.0%
Diluted Shares Out 956.1 972.9 952.3 887.9 | 888.4 913.4 890.9 | 911.1 | 876.5 876.5 876.9 | 876.6 | -2.0%



SECTION 2: Ranges and Value Points
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PRICE and EV RATIO RANGES Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 | Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 | Dec-10 | Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 | Dec-11 | Avg.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Price/Earnings (Cont Ops) Ratio 25.2 44.8 12.4 38.0 | 34.5 25.8 29.7 | 26.1 | 27.5 22.3 19.1 | 14.8 | 25.7
17.4 28.7 4.4 25.6 | 26.4 18.5 16.3 | 22.3 | 21.6 18.1 13.2 | 10.9 | 17.8

| | | | |
Price/Sales Ratio 4.1 9.2 4.2 9.2 | 8.0 6.7 7.8 | 6.7 | 7.8 6.7 6.2 | 5.1 | 6.1
2.8 5.9 1.5 6.2 | 6.1 4.8 4.3 | 5.8 | 6.1 5.4 4.3 | 3.8 | 4.2
| | | | |
Price/Free Cash Flow 74.4 45.0 23.4 -42.0 | -137.7 57.9 60.1 | 48.0 | 61.6 53.2 42.6 | 36.8 | 41.1
51.3 28.9 8.3 -28.3 | -105.4 41.4 32.9 | 41.1 | 48.4 43.1 29.3 | 27.2 | 27.5
| | | | |
Cash Flow Yield (for TomE) 1.3% 2.2% 4.3% -2.4% | -0.7% 1.7% 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% 1.9% 2.3% | 2.7% | 1.8%
1.9% 3.5% 12.0% -3.5% | -0.9% 2.4% 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% 2.3% 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.8%

| | | | |
Price/Book Value 5.5 8.0 8.6 5.7 | 5.5 5.4 5.8 | 6.5 | 7.6 6.7 7.2 | 5.7 | 6.5
3.8 5.1 3.1 3.8 | 4.2 3.9 3.2 | 5.5 | 6.0 5.5 4.9 | 4.2 | 4.4

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EV/Earnings (Cont Ops) Ratio 27.7 45.5 13.2 41.7 | 38.0 28.3 31.9 | 29.0 | 29.9 24.1 20.6 | 16.1 | 27.7
19.9 29.4 5.3 29.4 | 29.9 20.9 18.4 | 25.2 | 24.0 19.9 14.6 | 12.2 | 19.8
| | | | |
EV/Sales Ratio 4.5 9.3 4.5 10.2 | 8.8 7.3 8.4 | 7.5 | 8.5 7.2 6.7 | 5.6 | 6.5
3.2 6.0 1.8 7.2 | 6.9 5.4 4.9 | 6.5 | 6.8 6.0 4.7 | 4.2 | 4.6
| | | | |
EV/Free Cash Flow 82.0 45.7 25.0 -46.2 | -151.8 63.4 64.5 | 53.3 | 67.0 57.5 45.9 | 40.1 | 44.8
58.9 29.5 9.9 -32.5 | -119.4 46.8 37.3 | 46.3 | 53.8 47.4 32.6 | 30.5 | 31.2

| | | | |
EV/Book Value 6.1 8.1 9.2 6.2 | 6.0 5.9 6.2 | 7.2 | 8.3 7.3 7.7 | 6.2 | 7.0
4.4 5.2 3.6 4.4 | 4.7 4.4 3.6 | 6.3 | 6.7 6.0 5.5 | 4.7 | 4.9


SECTION 3: Valuation Scenarios
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A Quick Valuation using assumed growth rates derived from historical ranges using growth as a guide. Starting Values are the averages of the past 5 quarters data projected forward 5.5 years.


Price 43.82 Jun-11 Growth Dec 2016 (proj) PE Future V RoR
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sales 9.08 12.0% 16.93 25.0% 4.23 15.0 63.49 7.7%
sales margin eps 20.0 84.66 14.1%

EPS 2.77 10.0% 4.69 15.0 70.28 9.9%
eps 20.0 93.71 16.4%

Book Value 8.68 15.0% 18.73 25.0% 4.68 15.0 70.24 9.9%
book val roe eps 20.0 93.65 16.4%

Intrinsic value assuming 12% required RoR: $36 to $53
Margin of Safety Range: -17.8% to 21.3%


Valuation 2 - 80% of above growth rates and associated corresponding multiples.


Price 43.82 Jun-11 Growth Dec 2016 (proj) PE Future V RoR
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sales 9.08 9.6% 15.03 25.0% 3.76 12.0 45.09 0.6%
sales margin eps 16.0 60.12 6.5%

EPS 2.77 8.0% 4.24 12.0 50.83 3.0%
eps 16.0 67.77 9.1%

Book Value 8.68 12.0% 16.20 25.0% 4.05 12.0 48.59 2.1%
book val roe eps 16.0 64.79 8.1%

Intrinsic value assuming 12% required RoR: $26 to $38
Margin of Safety Range: -41.6% to -12.2%

Valuation 3 - 125% of above growth rates and associated corresponding multiples. PIE in the SKY ?


Price 43.82 Jun-11 Growth Dec 2016 (proj) PE Future V RoR
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sales 9.08 15.0% 19.58 25.0% 4.90 18.8 91.78 15.9%
sales margin eps 25.0 122.38 22.8%

EPS 2.77 12.5% 5.30 18.8 99.41 17.8%
eps 25.0 132.55 24.8%

Book Value 8.68 18.8% 22.35 25.0% 5.59 18.8 104.75 19.0%
book val roe eps 25.0 139.66 26.1%

Intrinsic value assuming 12% required RoR: $52 to $79
Margin of Safety Range: 18.9% to 80.9%



SECTION 4 Support Data - Full Balance Sheet, TTM Income Statement and Quarterly Income Statements.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTM Income Statement Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 | Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 | Dec-10 | Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 | Dec-11 | % CAGR

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Revenues 3766.7 5234.2 9446.5 3976.7 | 4767.8 5349.6 5825.5 | 6538.6 | 7029.0 7916.2 8662.2 | 8715.0 | 15.0%

COGS 2522.3 3061.7 122.6 2638.6 | 2917.1 3056.1 3301.9 | 3502.9 | 3589.5 3864.2 4015.9 | 3946.0 | 8.3%
Gross Profit 1177.9 2037.1 8780.5 1309.1 | 1832.2 2239.7 2455.7 | 2959.2 | 3351.5 3981.2 4538.7 | 4682.0 | 25.5%


R & D Expense 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 |
S G & A 158.4 212.6 188.4 183.6 | 189.7 181.3 220.6 | 228.1 | 253.6 263.6 234.4 | 211.0 | 8.1%
Deprec & Amort 242.4 291.3 334.7 312.1 | 339.2 369.0 382.0 | 410.7 | 433.6 461.7 487.3 | 489.0 | 13.7%
Other Expense (98.4) (55.3) 3622.3 (378.8) | (332.6) (329.7) (346.8) | (227.7) | (246.7) (99.1) (31.8) | (38.0) | 14.5%
Special Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total Operating Expenses 302.4 448.6 4145.4 116.9 | 196.3 220.6 255.8 | 411.1 | 440.5 626.2 689.9 | 662.0 | 11.0%


Total Operating Income 875.5 1588.5 4635.1 1192.2 | 1635.9 2019.1 2199.9 | 2548.1 | 2911.0 3355.0 3848.8 | 4020.0 | 29.3%


Non-Operating Income 98.4 97.7 (3602.6) 389.3 | 343.1 341.0 359.3 | 230.9 | 249.9 163.5 204.0 | 324.0 | 27.8%
Interest Expense 85.6 111.1 82.5 131.4 | 138.7 135.7 122.3 | 102.3 | 121.8 136.3 155.6 | 159.0 | 9.2%
Other & Extra Items 98.4 55.3 (3622.3) 378.8 | 332.6 329.7 346.8 | 227.7 | 246.7 99.1 31.8 | 38.0 | 14.5%

Pre-Tax Income 789.9 1519.8 4572.3 1071.3 | 1507.7 1894.7 2090.1 | 2449.0 | 2792.4 3283.1 3865.4 | 4147.0 | 31.5%
Income Taxes 158.1 416.2 1077.1 83.5 | 379.0 481.1 522.6 | 642.8 | 703.4 826.1 985.1 | 1066.0 | 30.0%

Income (Before Extra Items) 631.8 1103.6 3495.2 987.8 | 1128.7 1413.6 1567.5 | 1806.2 | 2089.0 2457.0 2880.3 | 3081.0 | 32.0%
Income Available to Common 631.8 1103.6 3495.2 987.8 | 1128.7 1413.6 1567.5 | 1806.2 | 2089.0 2457.0 2880.3 | 3081.0 | 32.0%



Op Income after Deprec 777.1 1533.2 8257.4 813.4 | 1303.3 1689.4 1853.1 | 2320.4 | 2664.3 3255.9 3817.0 | 3982.0 | 30.2%
EBITDA 1019.5 1824.5 8592.1 1125.5 | 1642.5 2058.4 2235.1 | 2731.1 | 3097.9 3717.6 4304.3 | 4471.0 | 27.3%


Sequential Change in Revenues 2.5% 8.5% 4.9% -16.2% | 19.9% 12.2% 8.9% | 12.2% | 7.5% 12.6% 9.4% | 0.6% |
Y o Y Change in Revenue -2.1% 39.0% 80.5% -57.9% | -43.8% -20.3% 22.7% | 64.4% | 47.4% 48.0% 48.7% | 33.3% |


Gross Margin 31.3% 38.9% 92.9% 32.9% | 38.4% 41.9% 42.2% | 45.3% | 47.7% 50.3% 52.4% | 53.7% | 50.4%
Operating Margin 23.2% 30.3% 49.1% 30.0% | 34.3% 37.7% 37.8% | 39.0% | 41.4% 42.4% 44.4% | 46.1% | 35.1%
Net Profit Margin 16.8% 21.1% 37.0% 24.8% | 23.7% 26.4% 26.9% | 27.6% | 29.7% 31.0% 33.3% | 35.4% | 25.7%


S G & A / Sales 4.2% 4.1% 2.0% 4.6% | 4.0% 3.4% 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% 3.3% 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.5%

R & D / Sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% | 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0%

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Balance Sheet Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 | Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 | Dec-10 | Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 | Dec-11 | % CAGR

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cash & ST Investments 325.7 719.5 283.2 385.4 | 298.8 366.7 359.8 | 411.9 | 473.0 408.0 394.0 | 430.0 | 4.8%

Receivables 442.3 596.2 1106.5 507.0 | 693.0 787.4 975.1 | 1013.4 | 1256.0 1268.0 1327.0 | 1195.0 | 23.3%
Inventories 501.3 428.1 714.9 623.5 | 576.5 661.9 507.8 | 569.9 | 597.0 597.0 581.0 | 731.0 | 5.4%
Other current assets 40.9 67.5 79.2 124.9 | 134.2 151.2 132.3 | 114.4 | 55.0 43.0 38.0 | 52.0 | -3.4%
Total Current Assets 1310.2 1811.3 2267.2 2271.7 | 2062.5 1967.2 1975.0 | 2139.9 | 2381.0 2316.0 2340.0 | 2408.0 | 12.2%


Fixed and other LT Assets 4906.8 7905.3 7981.6 10650.5 |11541.5 11096.6 12557.0 |13479.4 |13584.0 13901.0 13482.0 |13849.0 | 22.0%
Total Assets 6217.0 9716.6 10248.8 12922.2 |13604.0 13063.8 14532.0 |15619.3 |15965.0 16217.0 15822.0 |16257.0 | 20.3%


Accounts Payable 228.9 371.0 474.0 629.2 | 823.8 959.4 1114.7 | 663.6 | 1261.0 1291.0 1201.0 | 1024.0 | 19.9%
Short Term Debt 558.3 90.2 1432.2 728.8 | 850.6 1075.7 993.4 | 1871.3 | 1694.0 1117.0 882.0 | 832.0 | 26.0%
Deferred Revenues 25.2 42.1 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 53.2 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.2%
Other current liabilities 291.1 498.6 709.6 201.9 | 0.0 (0.0) 92.1 | 603.7 | 61.0 54.0 82.0 | 338.0 | 8.2%
Total Current Liabilities 1103.5 1001.9 2615.8 1559.9 | 1674.4 2035.1 2200.2 | 3191.8 | 3016.0 2462.0 2165.0 | 2194.0 | 21.1%


Long Term Debt 1357.1 1339.4 1739.5 3319.3 | 3320.1 2720.6 2721.6 | 3707.2 | 3707.0 3704.0 3704.0 | 3705.0 | 28.1%
Other Liabilities 976.1 1356.6 1304.6 1542.3 | 1657.2 1738.8 1759.7 | 1916.1 | 2062.0 2196.0 2486.0 | 2511.0 | 17.6%
Total Liabilities 3436.7 3697.9 5659.9 6421.5 | 6651.7 6494.5 6681.5 | 8815.1 | 8785.0 8362.0 8355.0 | 8410.0 | 22.8%


Common Stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 |
Additional Paid-in Capital 1493.9 1560.2 1528.7 1579.8 | 1592.1 1613.5 1641.7 | 1591.0 | 1808.0 1797.0 1764.0 | 1774.0 | 3.6%
Retained Earnings 1286.4 2279.6 2402.3 3272.1 | 3630.7 4073.1 4445.9 | 2968.9 | 3224.0 4004.0 4645.0 | 5257.0 | 27.0%
Treasury Stock 0.0 2178.9 657.9 1648.8 | 1729.5 882.7 1762.9 | 2244.3 | 2148.0 2054.0 1058.0 | 816.0 | 21.1%
Shareholder's Equity 2780.3 6018.7 4588.9 6500.7 | 6952.3 6569.3 7850.5 | 6804.2 | 7180.0 7855.0 7467.0 | 7847.0 | 17.7%


A/R Day Sales Out 42.3 41.0 45.4 103.0 | 79.5 53.0 60.3 | 57.5 | 64.3 57.7 55.2 | 49.4 | 53.6
Days of Inventory 73.0 55.0 1585.0 91.0 | 76.0 78.0 63.0 | 61.0 | 59.0 59.0 49.0 | 59.0 | 55.8

Days Payable Out 33.1 44.2 1411.2 87.0 | 103.1 114.6 123.2 | 69.1 | 128.2 121.9 109.2 | 94.7 | 52.0
Cash Conversion Cycle 82.1 51.8 219.2 107.0 | 52.4 16.4 0.0 | 49.3 | (4.9) (5.3) (5.0) | 13.6 | 57.4


Quick Ratio 0.7 1.3 0.6 1.0 | 0.8 0.6 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 0.7 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8
Current Ratio 1.2 1.8 0.9 1.5 | 1.2 1.0 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 0.9 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2
Flow Ratio 1.8 1.2 1.7 2.3 | 2.1 1.7 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 1.4 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.7


Sequential Change in Revenues 2.5% 8.5% 4.9% -16.2% | 19.9% 12.2% 8.9% | 12.2% | 7.5% 12.6% 9.4% | 0.6% | 0.0%
Sequential Change in Receivables -2.7% 2.6% -19.4% -5.7% | 36.7% 13.6% 23.8% | 3.9% | 23.9% 1.0% 4.7% | -9.9% | 0.0%
Sequential Change in Inventories 2.0% -1.2% -3.9% -2.6% | -7.5% 14.8% -23.3% | 12.2% | 4.8% 0.0% -2.7% | 25.8% | 0.0%

Working Capital 206.7 809.4 (348.6) 711.8 | 388.1 (67.9) (225.2) |(1051.9) | (635.0) (146.0) 175.0 | 214.0 |


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTM Cash Flow Statement Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 | Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 | Dec-10 | Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 | Dec-11 | % CAGR

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Income 631.8 1103.6 3495.2 987.8 | 1128.7 1413.6 1567.5 | 1806.2 | 2089.0 2457.0 2880.3 | 3081.0 | 32.0%

D & A 242.4 291.3 327.5 312.1 | 339.2 369.0 382.0 | 410.7 | 433.6 461.7 487.3 | 489.0 | 13.7%
Deferred Taxes 50.0 119.6 (24.2) 201.9 | 371.4 339.9 137.1 | 148.8 | 184.6 241.0 490.8 | 337.0 | 35.2%
Operating Gains (19.2) (48.8) (145.1) (110.4) | (99.2) (51.9) (190.8) | (86.0) | (110.8) (111.8) (261.7) | (255.0) | 112.8%
Extra Gains 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 |
Changes in Working Capital (244.0) 163.6 (767.5) (427.0) | (142.2) 490.7 633.9 | 643.2 | 233.6 (36.9) (240.1) | (219.0) |
Other Non-cash Items 35.8 59.6 127.3 (40.5) | 15.8 22.9 237.5 | 76.1 | 70.5 46.7 62.3 | 52.0 | 14.5%
Net Cash Discontinued Ops 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 |
Cash from Operations 696.8 1688.9 3013.2 923.9 | 1613.7 2584.2 2767.2 | 2999.0 | 2900.5 3057.7 3418.9 | 3485.0 | 29.6%


Property Plant & Equipment (486.6) (594.9)(1201.7)(1798.5) |(1889.8)(1952.8)(2009.4) |(2017.8) |(1990.5)(2039.1)(2130.5) |(2248.0) | 38.4%
Short Term Investments 0.0 (132.5) 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 (132.5) (132.5) | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 |
Long Term Investments (352.5) (30.7) (445.6) (3.2) | (425.5) (425.5) (425.5) | (422.3) | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | (3.0) | -21.2%
Acquisitions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 |
Other Investing Changes (0.6) 0.0 0.0 132.5 | 132.5 132.5 132.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 |
Cash from Investing Activities (839.7) (758.1)(1647.3)(1669.2) |(2182.8)(2378.3)(2434.9) |(2440.1) |(1990.5)(2039.1)(2130.5) |(2251.0) | 27.5%


Net change in Debt 388.3 (470.0) 1633.7 4511.9 | 4262.4 3441.8 3271.9 | 1530.2 | 1242.0 1263.0 867.6 |(1052.0) | 68.2%
Change in Capital Stock 47.3 26.6 (3319.7) 20.2 | 28.6 26.4 43.7 |(1943.9) |(1935.9)(1933.9)(1944.2) | 44.0 | 53.2%
Dividend Payments (60.9) (93.6) (122.6) (116.9) | (116.9) (117.4) (118.0) | (118.7) | (117.0) (147.5) (177.7) | (208.0) | 20.0%
Other Financing Changes 0.0 0.0 0.0 (3561.3) |(3561.3)(3561.3)(3561.3) | 0.0 | 0.0 (159.0) 0.0 | 0.0 |
Cash from Investing Activities 374.7 (537.0)(1808.6) 853.9 | 612.8 (210.5) (363.7) | (532.4) | (810.9) (977.4)(1254.3) |(1216.0) | 38.7%


Effect of Exchange Rates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 |
Net Change in Cash & Equiv. 231.8 393.8 (442.7) 108.6 | 43.7 (4.6) (31.4) | 26.5 | 99.1 41.2 34.1 | 18.0 | 1.0%


Free Cash Flow 210.2 1094.0 1811.5 (874.6) | (276.1) 631.4 757.8 | 981.2 | 910.0 1018.6 1288.4 | 1237.0 | 18.5%
(incl Purchase of Business) 210.2 1094.0 1811.5 (874.6) | (276.1) 631.4 757.8 | 981.2 | 910.0 1018.6 1288.4 | 1237.0 | 18.5%



SECTION 5: Actual Quarterly Results for review.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quarterly Income Statement Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 | Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 | Dec-10 | Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 | Dec-11 | % CAGR

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Revenues 1022.9 1431.4 1870.6 1099.1 | 1713.6 1437.8 1575.0 | 1812.2 | 2204.0 2325.0 2321.0 | 1865.0 | 15.4%

COGS 662.6 821.4 (3164.7) 734.9 | 897.4 754.3 915.3 | 935.9 | 984.0 1029.0 1067.0 | 866.0 | 8.0%
Gross Profit 335.0 569.9 4926.3 352.2 | 793.7 666.3 643.5 | 855.7 | 1186.0 1296.0 1201.0 | 999.0 | 26.2%


R & D Expense 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 |
S G & A 43.8 54.6 29.8 50.9 | 49.5 45.0 75.2 | 58.4 | 75.0 55.0 46.0 | 35.0 | 4.4%
Deprec & Amort 61.0 75.0 80.4 84.6 | 101.1 99.9 96.4 | 113.3 | 124.0 128.0 122.0 | 115.0 | 14.3%
Interest & Other Expense (35.3) (11.4) 3940.7 (112.9) | (19.0) (147.6) (67.3) | 6.2 | (38.0) 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 | -20.5%
Special Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total Operating Expenses 69.5 118.2 4050.9 22.6 | 131.6 (2.7) 104.3 | 177.9 | 161.0 183.0 168.0 | 150.0 | 14.1%


Total Operating Income 265.5 451.7 875.4 329.6 | 662.1 669.0 539.2 | 677.8 | 1025.0 1113.0 1033.0 | 849.0 | 29.3%


Non-Operating Income 35.3 41.2 (3923.0) 123.4 | 19.0 148.4 68.5 | (5.0) | 38.0 62.0 109.0 | 115.0 | 25.9%
Interest Expense 16.5 39.5 38.3 50.6 | 30.5 23.5 17.7 | 30.6 | 50.0 38.0 37.0 | 34.0 | 10.6%
Other & Extra Items 35.3 17.4 (3940.7) 112.9 | 19.0 147.6 67.3 | (6.2) | 38.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 | -21.2%

Pre-Tax Income 249.0 436.0 854.8 289.5 | 631.6 646.3 522.7 | 648.4 | 975.0 1137.0 1105.0 | 930.0 | 32.0%
Income Taxes 63.0 65.2 66.8 45.9 | 182.4 174.3 120.0 | 166.1 | 243.0 297.0 279.0 | 247.0 | 32.2%

Income (Before Extra Items) 186.0 376.8 788.0 243.6 | 449.2 472.0 402.7 | 482.3 | 732.0 840.0 826.0 | 683.0 | 31.8%
Income Available to Common 186.0 376.8 788.0 243.6 | 449.2 472.0 402.7 | 482.3 | 732.0 840.0 826.0 | 683.0 | 31.8%


EPS (Diluted - Normalized) 0.19 0.38 0.76 0.27 | 0.49 0.52 0.44 | 0.53 | 0.84 0.96 0.94 | 0.78 | 34.8%

EPS (Basic) 0.20 0.40 0.88 0.27 | 0.51 0.53 0.45 | 0.55 | 0.86 0.98 0.96 | 0.80 | 34.5%
EPS (Diluted) 0.19 0.38 0.76 0.27 | 0.49 0.52 0.44 | 0.53 | 0.84 0.96 0.94 | 0.78 | 34.8%

Common Shares Out 935.6 946.9 922.4 887.9 | 888.4 889.1 890.9 | 886.4 | 854.0 855.0 856.0 | 855.7 | -2.0%
Diluted Shares Out 956.1 972.9 952.3 887.9 | 888.4 913.4 890.9 | 911.1 | 876.5 876.5 876.9 | 876.6 | -2.0%

Op Income after Deprec 230.2 440.3 4816.1 216.7 | 643.1 521.4 471.9 | 684.0 | 987.0 1113.0 1033.0 | 849.0 | 30.9%
EBITDA 291.2 515.3 4896.5 301.3 | 744.2 621.3 568.3 | 797.3 | 1111.0 1241.0 1155.0 | 964.0 | 28.3%

Sequential Change in Revenues 7.3% 10.5% -39.0% 0.0% | 55.9% -16.1% 9.5% | 15.1% | 21.6% 5.5% -0.2% | -19.6% |
Y o Y Change in Revenue 9.9% 39.9% 30.7% -41.2% | 85.8% 68.0% 43.3% | 64.9% | 28.6% 61.7% 47.4% | 2.9% |


Gross Margin 32.8% 39.8% 263.4% 32.0% | 46.3% 46.3% 40.9% | 47.2% | 53.8% 55.7% 51.7% | 53.6% | 50.0%
Operating Margin 26.0% 31.6% 46.8% 30.0% | 38.6% 46.5% 34.2% | 37.4% | 46.5% 47.9% 44.5% | 45.5% | 35.5%
Net Profit Margin 18.2% 26.3% 42.1% 22.2% | 26.2% 32.8% 25.6% | 26.6% | 33.2% 36.1% 35.6% | 36.6% 26.5%


S G & A / Sales 4.3% 3.8% 1.6% 4.6% | 2.9% 3.1% 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% 2.4% 2.0% | 1.9% 3.5%




SECTION 6: 12 years of data to match Section 1 & 2 above with 10 year Compounded Annual Growth Rates.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12 Years of Annual Data Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 % CAGR

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
High Price 4.45 3.61 3.84 4.85 9.33 10.37 16.35 50.63 44.48 41.37 51.68 51.96 29.4%
Low Price 2.67 3.02 3.35 3.92 6.74 8.09 11.28 32.45 15.85 27.92 44.22 38.42 28.0%

TTM REVENUES per SHARE 2.39 2.22 2.04 2.58 3.26 4.13 3.99 5.51 10.67 4.48 7.66 10.15 13.1%

Y o Y Change in Revenue 12.2% -7.1% -8.1% 26.5% 26.4% 26.7% -3.4% 38.1% 93.6% -58.0% 71.0% 32.5% 0.0%

FCF per Share 0.29 (0.46) 0.12 0.25 0.43 0.52 0.20 1.14 1.96 (1.01) 1.14 1.44 0.64

Y o Y Change in FCF 52.6% -258.6% -126.1% 108.3% 72.0% 20.9% -61.5% 470.0% 71.9% -151.5% -212.9% 26.3% 0.0%

EPS (Diluted - Normalized) 0.24 0.13 0.06 0.20 0.30 0.54 0.66 1.13 3.67 1.08 1.98 3.51 28.6%

EPS (Basic) 0.21 0.13 0.06 (0.13) 0.31 0.56 0.68 1.17 3.79 1.11 2.04 3.60
EPS (Diluted) 0.21 0.13 0.06 (0.13) 0.30 0.54 0.66 1.13 3.67 1.08 1.98 3.51

Y o Y Growth in EPS (TTM) 33.3% -45.8% -53.8% 233.3% 50.0% 80.0% 22.2% 71.2% 224.8% -70.6% 83.3% 77.3% 0.0%


Dividend 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.10 0.10 0.13 0.13 0.24 9.5%

Retained Earnings 0.60 0.28 0.68 0.49 0.70 0.72 1.35 2.34 2.52 3.69 3.26 6.00 23.2%
Tangible Book Value 2.04 2.13 2.13 1.96 2.26 2.15 2.81 6.21 5.05 7.19 7.84 9.00 13.3%
Common Equity 2.16 2.23 2.23 2.06 2.40 2.29 2.95 6.34 5.18 7.32 7.98 9.14 12.9%


Y o Y Change in Book Value 6.4% 3.2% 0.0% -7.6% 16.5% -4.6% 28.8% 114.9% -18.3% 41.3% 9.0% 14.5% 0.0%

Cash Net of LT Debt (per share) (0.86) (1.57) (1.56) (1.53) (0.91) (1.42) (1.66) (0.73) (3.03) (4.13) (5.67) (4.69) 12.7%


Dupont Analysis (components of ROE) TTM

Asset Turnover (Revenue/Assets) 53.8% 45.1% 40.8% 54.0% 63.3% 71.8% 60.6% 53.9% 92.2% 30.8% 41.9% 53.6% 54.9%
Net Margin (Income/Revenue) 8.9% 5.8% 2.8% -5.1% 9.2% 14.1% 16.8% 21.1% 37.0% 24.8% 27.6% 35.4% 13.7%
Leverage (Assets/Equity) 206.0% 220.3% 223.9% 231.4% 214.9% 251.2% 223.6% 161.4% 223.3% 198.8% 229.6% 207.2% 214.7%

Return on Shareholders' Equity (TT 9.8% 5.8% 2.6% -6.4% 12.5% 25.5% 22.7% 18.3% 76.2% 15.2% 26.5% 39.3% 17.5%


Return on Average Assets 4.8% 2.6% 1.1% -2.8% 5.8% 10.1% 10.2% 11.4% 34.1% 7.6% 11.6% 19.0% 8.1%

Total Debt / Total Capital 37.4% 48.9% 48.1% 44.6% 37.4% 44.6% 46.3% 19.4% 50.1% 41.2% 53.1% 39.3% 42.2%

Total Liabilities / Total Assets 51.5% 54.6% 55.3% 56.8% 53.5% 60.2% 55.3% 38.1% 55.2% 49.7% 56.4% 51.7% 52.9%

Common Shares Out 943.4 935.3 936.4 940.1 971.7 977.1 935.6 946.9 922.4 887.9 886.4 855.7
Diluted Shares Out 943.4 935.3 941.7 940.1 996.7 999.7 956.1 972.9 952.3 887.9 911.1 876.6


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PRICE and EV RATIO RANGES Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Avg.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Price/Earnings (Cont Ops) Ratio 18.5 27.7 64.1 24.2 31.1 19.2 24.8 44.8 12.1 38.3 26.1 14.8 27.8
11.1 23.2 55.8 19.6 22.5 15.0 17.1 28.7 4.3 25.8 22.3 10.9 20.7


Dividend Yield 1.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.8%
2.3% 2.0% 1.8% 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 1.1%

Price/Sales Ratio 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.9 2.5 4.1 9.2 4.2 9.2 6.7 5.1 4.0
1.1 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.8 5.9 1.5 6.2 5.8 3.8 2.8

Price/Free Cash Flow 15.4 -7.8 32.0 19.4 21.7 19.9 81.8 44.4 22.7 -41.0 45.3 36.1 23.5
9.2 -6.6 27.9 15.7 15.7 15.5 56.4 28.5 8.1 -27.6 38.8 26.7 17.0

Cash Flow Yield (for TomE) 6.5% -12.8% 3.1% 5.2% 4.6% 5.0% 1.2% 2.3% 4.4% -2.4% 2.2% 2.8% 2.2%
10.9% -15.2% 3.6% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 1.8% 3.5% 12.4% -3.6% 2.6% 3.7% 3.6%


Price/Book Value 2.1 1.6 1.7 2.4 3.9 4.5 5.5 8.0 8.6 5.7 6.5 5.7 4.4
1.2 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.8 3.5 3.8 5.1 3.1 3.8 5.5 4.2 3.0

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EV/Earnings (Cont Ops) Ratio 22.1 39.8 90.1 31.9 34.1 21.8 27.3 45.5 12.9 42.1 29.0 16.1 33.4
14.7 35.3 81.9 27.2 25.5 17.6 19.6 29.4 5.1 29.7 25.2 12.3 26.3

EV/Sales Ratio 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.5 3.1 2.9 4.5 9.3 4.5 10.2 7.5 5.6 4.5
1.5 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.3 3.2 6.0 1.8 7.2 6.5 4.2 3.3

EV/Free Cash Flow 18.3 -11.3 45.1 25.5 23.8 22.7 90.1 45.1 24.2 -45.0 50.3 39.3 26.8
12.1 -10.0 40.9 21.8 17.8 18.3 64.7 29.1 9.6 -31.7 43.8 29.9 20.3


EV/Book Value 2.5 2.3 2.4 3.1 4.3 5.1 6.1 8.1 9.2 6.2 7.2 6.2 5.0
1.6 2.1 2.2 2.6 3.2 4.1 4.4 5.2 3.6 4.4 6.3 4.7 3.5

Section 7: Cash Flow Analysis looking at it 3 ways including purchase of business and Owner Earnings as defined by only Net Income + D&A - CapEx
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cash Flow Analysis Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cash from Operations 480.4 75.7 316.4 381.5 649.6 865.1 696.8 1688.9 3013.2 923.9 2999.0 3485.0
Cap Ex -177.0 -513.7 -212.2 -150.7 -218.0 -375.5 -486.6 -594.9 -1201.7 -1798.5 -2017.8 -2248.0

Free Cash Flow 303.4 -438.0 104.2 230.8 431.6 489.6 210.2 1094.0 1811.5 -874.6 981.2 1237.0

FCF / Net Income 153.2% -361.4% 194.4% -182.7% 144.5% 90.2% 33.3% 99.1% 51.8% -88.5% 54.3% 40.1%


Purchase of Business -32.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

FCF (incl P of B) 271.4 -438.0 104.2 230.8 431.6 489.6 210.2 1094.0 1811.5 -874.6 981.2 1237.0

FCF (PB) / N Income 137.1% -361.4% 194.4% -182.7% 144.5% 90.2% 33.3% 99.1% 51.8% -88.5% 54.3% 40.1%


Net Income 198.0 121.2 53.6 -126.3 298.6 542.9 631.8 1103.6 3495.2 987.8 1806.2 3081.0
Depr & Amort 187.0 185.7 219.1 227.4 240.0 242.4 242.4 291.3 327.5 312.1 410.7 489.0
Cap Ex -177.0 -513.7 -212.2 -150.7 -218.0 -375.5 -486.6 -594.9 -1201.7 -1798.5 -2017.8 -2248.0

Owner Earnings 208.0 -206.8 60.5 -49.6 320.6 409.8 387.6 800.0 2621.0 -498.6 199.1 1322.0

OE / Net Income 105.1% -170.6% 112.9% 39.3% 107.4% 75.5% 61.3% 72.5% 75.0% -50.5% 11.0% 42.9%


FCF Ratios and Analysis

Rolling 5 year averages (center year) Dec-01 Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 All 10 years


FCF / Net Income -258.1% 91.9% 100.2% 40.4% 40.6% 48.1%
FCF (PB) / Net Income -216.4% 91.9% 100.2% 40.4% 40.6% 48.1%

OE / Net Income 196.8% 60.1% 76.2% 55.0% 42.4% 46.9%



For those of you downloading and inserting this into your own worksheets, I apologize for increasing your work but it will be nice to have everything in one post.
Please note that when I make changes, I am now indicating the latest update with version numbers on the right side of the header but hopefully this will be the end of any major changes.

As always, I welcome comments and suggestions. RP
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