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Author: TMFBreakerRob Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Home Fool Supernova Phoenix 1
Mission Team Member CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 18103  
Subject: Pretty Good November Results Date: 12/3/2012 12:46 PM
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http://corporate.ford.com/our-company/investors/investor-new...


* Ford U.S. November small car sales total 26,848 vehicles – a 76 percent increase compared with last year and the company’s strongest November small car sales in 12 years

* C-MAX Hybrids sales gain momentum with 4,848 vehicles in November, a 52 percent increase compared with October; Ford posts best-ever month for electrified vehicle sales

* F-Series has its 16th consecutive year-over-year monthly sales increase and fourth month in a row with more than 50,000 sales; this marks F-Series’ best November sales since 2005, with 56,299 pickups sold – an 18 percent increase

* Ford Motor Company U.S. sales total 177,673 vehicles in November, up 6 percent from a year ago; retail sales up 12 percent compared with last year

* Ford announces 2013 first-quarter production of 750,000 vehicles; up 11 percent from the prior year

DEARBORN, Mich., Dec. 3, 2012 – November brought growth throughout Ford’s product portfolio in the U.S., with car sales up 15 percent, utilities up 2 percent and trucks up 4 percent.

“November represented a strong month for the industry, and Ford sales performed well across the board,” said Ken Czubay, Ford vice president, U.S. Marketing, Sales and Service. “We saw sharp increases in demand for Ford’s fuel-efficient small cars, our best-ever month for electrified vehicles and growing demand for our fuel-efficient and capable F-Series pickups.”

Ford had its best small car November sales month since 2000, with Focus, the all-new C-MAX Hybrids and Fiesta sales totaling 26,848 vehicles – a 76 percent increase over last year. Focus sales were up 56 percent versus year-ago levels, while the all-new C-MAX Hybrid lineup gained 52 percent versus October, when the C-MAX Energi went on sale.

The Ford F-Series, America’s best-selling vehicle, posted an 18 percent increase, with 56,299 vehicles sold in November. This represents F-Series’ best November since 2005 and 16 straight months of year-over-year sales increases.

Ford’s total November sales of 177,673 vehicles increased 6 percent versus last year, with retail sales up 12 percent.

Ford also announced its 2013 first-quarter North American production plan. The company plans to build 750,000 vehicles in the first quarter, up 11 percent (73,000 vehicles) from 2012’s first quarter. Fourth quarter production of 725,000 vehicles is unchanged from previous guidance.


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The other side of the story:

* Fusion sales were weak, perhaps due to availability. Maybe Doug can comment on that.

* Lincoln continued to be weak.

********

Bottom line (for me):

Given the likelihood that sales will be getting even stronger in 2013 across all North America (except Lincoln), I think it is a good time for me to start building a position in F. Although it isn't at the low, I think there is some nice shareholder value being created that will be reflected in the share price over the coming year or two.

Rob
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Author: BFatConservative One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 17278 of 18103
Subject: Re: Pretty Good November Results Date: 12/3/2012 1:10 PM
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Welcome back to the (roller)coaster Rob.

As a 2 year stockholder that utilized the plunge from $15 per share to do some fairly aggressive covered call writing, I'm enjoying the view from sub $10 a share basis.

I can't say it's been a slam dunk like I thought the Mulally train was going to be (Europe/Recalls), but I am liking many of the prospects that you highlighted above.

The thing I've struggled with Ford is the couple years from now union re-negotiation. Is your game plan to jump back out in plenty of time before said occurrence?

---
MjH

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Author: mitchjl Two stars, 250 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 17279 of 18103
Subject: Re: Pretty Good November Results Date: 12/3/2012 6:51 PM
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Rob :I am betting that the PP/S will see $15.00 beford mid year.I am putting my money on that.

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Author: TMFBreakerRob Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Home Fool Supernova Phoenix 1
Mission Team Member CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 17280 of 18103
Subject: Re: Pretty Good November Results Date: 12/3/2012 11:51 PM
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The thing I've struggled with Ford is the couple years from now union re-negotiation. Is your game plan to jump back out in plenty of time before said occurrence? -- MjH

No, I think both sides are operating with a degree of recognition of reality, at least with the US union. The Canadian Auto Workers, perhaps not quite so much.

Rob

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Author: TMFBreakerRob Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Home Fool Supernova Phoenix 1
Mission Team Member CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 17281 of 18103
Subject: Re: Pretty Good November Results Date: 12/3/2012 11:57 PM
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I am betting that the PP/S will see $15.00 beford mid year.I am putting my money on that. -- mitchjl

That seems pretty reasonable.....

.... but most of us expected to see that this year too, didn't we? :)

I'd like to go with just buying calls, but I don't have a lot of confidence with the timing of a price rise with Ford..... and the reasons for a price increase are not as compelling as some other companies. After all, nobody is expecting earnings to rise 20% per year. Still, I'd like to get back in because I think better days are coming. And, modest earnings increases could conceivably drive a little bit better PE since we're starting at such a low, low level.

Besides.... I don't want to miss those spiffy annual reports. LOL

Rob

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Author: TMFBreakerRob Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Home Fool Supernova Phoenix 1
Mission Team Member CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 17282 of 18103
Subject: Re: Pretty Good November Results Date: 12/4/2012 12:00 AM
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I should also mention that the market isn't expecting much.

Deep in the money Jan14 and Jan15 calls are pricing in nothing!

Current price: $11.41
Jan14 $8 call: $3.65
Jan15 $8 call: $3.95

Pretty amazing or depressing, depending on your viewpoint. LOL

Rob

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