Progressive reports monthly results so this is the earliest estimate that could shed some light on GEICO's Sandy losses:During October, we incurred catastrophe losses of about $55 million, or 3.5 loss ratio points, related to Superstorm Sandy, compared to catastrophe losses of $6 million, or 0.4 points, in October 2011. New York and New Jersey accounted for nearly 80% of the total losses for the month. Year-to-date, we have incurred about $230 million, or 1.7 points, of catastrophe losses, compared to $204 million, or 1.6 points, last year. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80661/000119312512469...I am not sure exactly how Progressive and GEICO's market shares compare in the heavily impacted states. I may look into that later.
I am curious to see what you find about insurance market shares. I found this blog entry from Dr David Kass of the University of Maryland that says this:"GEICO is the largest automobile insurer in New York City with over a 25% market share. It is also the largest in New Jersey, Connecticut, and Washington, DC."http://blogs.rhsmith.umd.edu/davidkass/uncategorized/how-gei...
There's some interesting free data on insurance market shares. The following website is a good resource:http://www.naic.org/research_actuarial_dept.htmAccording to the "Top 25" Property and Casualty market share statistics, Berkshire as a whole is #7 in terms of direct premiums earned with a market share of 3.59%. If we look at market share for total private passenger auto, Berkshire (GEICO) is #3 with 9.07% market share trailing State Farm (18.62%) and Allstate (10.32%) and leading Progressive (7.94%). More granular reports (including state market share) are available from NAIC for around $200 but I'm not inclined to pay for it: http://www.naic.org/store_pub_statistical.htm#auto_ins_datab...However, some information is available from the New Jersey department of insurance and banking. The following PDF is geared toward consumer complaint data but also shows vehicles insured as of 12/31/11:http://www.state.nj.us/dobi/division_consumers/pdf/complaint...The report shows that Progressive had 304,488 vehicles insured as of 12/31/11 with GEICO at 763,470. (As an aside, GEICO has a much better score on complaints). I couldn't easily find similar information on New York state, but GEICO states that it has #1 market share in New York State:http://www.geico.com/information/states/ny/So the bottom line is that GEICO is likely to face larger losses than those reported by Progressive. And if Berkshire's total share of Sandy losses amount to about 4% of industry losses and industry losses come in at the high side of recent estimates ($25 billion), we're looking at $1 billion in losses, or $650 million after tax. That is close to $400/A share or $0.27/B share. Use this to calculate your "look through" Sandy costs by multiplying your shares owned by these estimates. It isn't the end of the world at all.
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