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Author: davidMN Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 5982  
Subject: Put simulation, BI Date: 12/22/2000 1:05 AM
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Ok, here's a put simulation using 2.5X leverage on LEAP puts bought on Dow stocks that were OVER their upside target and perhaps ripe for a fall:

This is only through 1995....

Put simulation 1973 Upside Price/Upside 1974 price Change simulated put gain
Price
AA 53.13 53.41 0.994757536 48.5 -8.71% 21.79% 53.84%
AMB 42.13 39.13 1.076667519 32.25 -23.45% 58.63%
EK 148.38 146.23 1.014702865 116 -21.82% 54.56%
PG 111.5 100.76 1.106589917 92 -17.49% 43.72%
S 116 60.62 1.913559881 80.25 -30.82% 77.05%
SD 79.63 63.62 1.251650424 35 -56.05% 140.12%
XON 87.5 75.61 1.157254331 94.13 7.58% -18.94%
1974 Price/Upside 1975 price Change Simulated put gain
WX 25.38 6.97 3.641319943 10 -60.60% 151.50% 151.50%
1975 Price/Upside 1976 price Change Simulated put gain
AA 29.88 29.89 0.99966544 38.63 29.28% -73.21% -73.21%
1976 Price/Upside 1977 price Change Simulated put gain
X 65 68.8 0.944767442 49.75 -23.46% 58.65% 58.65%
1977 Price/Upside 1978 price Change Simulated put gain
ESM 35.75 36.46 0.980526604 30 -16.08% 40.21% 83.56%
N 32.63 20.35 1.603439803 17.13 -47.50% 118.76%
X 49.75 15.31 3.249510124 31.5 -36.68% 91.71%
1978 Price/Upside 1979 price Change Simulated put gain
N 17.13 16.18 1.058714462 15.75 -8.06% 20.14% 50.74%
X 31.5 18.31 1.720371382 21.25 -32.54% 81.35%
1979 Price/Upside 1980 price Change Simulated put gain
ACD 28.25 4.19 6.742243437 -100.00% 250.00% ??
1980 Price/Upside 1981 price Change Simulated put gain
AC 35.38 36.12 0.979512735 30.38 -14.13% 35.33% -13.39%
BS 21.13 21.39 0.987844787 26.38 24.85% -62.12%
1981 Price/Upside 1982 price Change Simulated put gain
AA 59.63 37.99 1.569623585 25.63 -57.02% 142.55% 106.98%
GM 45 8.87 5.073280722 38.5 -14.44% 36.11%
JM 24.75 13.8 1.793478261 14.88 -39.88% 99.70%
SD 99.5 58 1.715517241 42.88 -56.90% 142.26%
XON 80.63 55.29 1.458310725 31.25 -61.24% 153.11%
Z 24.75 19.38 1.277089783 18 -27.27% 68.18%
1982 Price/Upside 1983 Price Change Simulated put gain
AC 34.38 10.16 3.383858268 30.88 -10.18% 25.45% -0.05%
ALD 43.88 43.19 1.01597592 32.38 -26.21% 65.52%
GM 38.5 27.43 1.403572731 62.38 62.03% -100.00%
IP 39.13 29.79 1.31352803 48.38 23.64% -59.10%
OI 29.63 10.8 2.743518519 28.25 -4.66% 11.64%
SD 42.88 33.66 1.273915627 32 -25.37% 63.43%
UK 51.38 34.94 1.470520893 52.88 2.92% -7.30%
1983 Price/Upside 1984 Price Change Simulated put gain
AA 31 18.46 1.679306609 44.8 44.52% -100.00% -22.95%
AC 30.88 30.19 1.02285525 46.88 51.81% -100.00%
AXP 64.25 58.29 1.102247384 32.63 -49.21% 123.04%
EK 86 38.29 2.246017237 76.13 -11.48% 28.69%
GT 35 30.87 1.133786848 30.38 -13.20% 33.00%
IP 48.38 35.8 1.351396648 59 21.95% -54.88%
OI 28.25 18.94 1.49155227 37.38 32.32% -80.80%
T 59.38 15.25 3.893770492 61.5 3.57% -8.93%
UK 52.88 23.2 2.279310345 62.75 18.66% -46.66%
1984 Price/Upside 1985 Price Change Simulated put gain
AA 44.88 58 0.773793103 37 -17.56% 43.89% 24.72%
AC 46.88 55.29 0.847892928 50.5 7.72% -19.30%
AMB 59.25 19.38 3.057275542 64.25 8.44% -21.10%
EK 76.13 67.42 1.129190151 71.88 -5.58% 13.96%
GE 58.63 55.54 1.055635578 56.63 -3.41% 8.53%
IP 59 36.77 1.604568942 53.88 -8.68% 21.69%
OI 37.38 36.54 1.022988506 40.25 7.68% -19.19%
TX 35.88 28.6 1.254545455 34.13 -4.88% 12.19%
UK 62.75 41.52 1.511319846 36.75 -41.43% 103.59%
WX 54.75 53.86 1.016524322 26.13 -52.27% 130.68%
X 30.38 13.78 2.204644412 26.13 -13.99% 34.97%
Z 35.13 33.9 1.036283186 37 5.32% -13.31%
1985 Price/Upside 1986 Price Change Simulated put gain
AA 37 12.67 2.920284136 38.5 4.05% -10.14% -32.29%
AC 50.5 45.38 1.112825033 60 18.81% -47.03%
ALD 34.5 23.56 1.46434635 46.75 35.51% -88.77%
AMB 64.25 63.86 1.006107109 -100.00% 250.00% ??
EK 71.88 34.59 2.078057242 50 -30.44% 76.10%
GE 56.63 55.31 1.023865485 72.75 28.47% -71.16%
GT 26 25.4 1.023622047 31.25 20.19% -50.48%
IP 53.88 19.6 2.748979592 50.75 -5.81% 14.52%
N 12.38 2.7 4.585185185 13.25 7.03% -17.57%
PG 57 52.58 1.084062381 69.75 22.37% -55.92%
UK 36.75 10.37 3.543876567 70.88 92.87% -100.00%
X 26.13 22.64 1.154151943 26.63 1.91% -4.78%
1986 Price/Upside 1987 Price Change Simulated put gain
AA 38.5 13.28 2.899096386 33.88 -12.00% 30.00% -20.33%
AC 60 53.22 1.127395716 84.13 40.22% -100.54%
CHV 38.13 20.65 1.846489104 45.38 19.01% -47.53%
DD 67.88 65.16 1.041743401 84 23.75% -59.37%
EK 50 23.08 2.166377816 68.59 37.18% -92.95%
GE 72.75 55.19 1.318173582 86 18.21% -45.53%
GM 70.38 64.9 1.084437596 66 -6.22% 15.56%
GT 31.25 24.71 1.264670174 41.88 34.02% -85.04%
IP 50.75 43.74 1.160265203 75.13 48.04% -100.00%
MCD 80.88 72.06 1.122398002 60.75 -24.89% 62.22%
OI 52.75 42.42 1.243517209 53 0.47% -1.18%
PG 69.75 51.73 1.348347187 76.38 9.51% -23.76%
S 39 38.74 1.006711409 39.75 1.92% -4.81%
TX 30 17.21 1.743172574 35.88 19.60% -49.00%
UK 70.88 30.33 2.336960106 22.5 -68.26% 170.64%
UTX 43.75 27.55 1.588021779 46 5.14% -12.86%
WX 44.5 41.52 1.07177264 55.75 25.28% -63.20%
XON 55.13 48.11 1.14591561 70.13 27.21% -68.02%
Z 60 53.54 1.120657452 38.63 -35.62% 89.04%
1987 Price/Upside 1988 Price Change Simulated put gain
AC 84.13 64.2 1.310436137 -100.00% 250.00% 37.79%
ALD 40.13 30.26 1.326173166 28.25 -29.60% 74.01%
AXP 57.5 22.17 2.593594948 22.38 -61.08% 152.70%
BS 6.25 3.61 1.731301939 16.75 168.00% -100.00%
CHV 45.38 17.72 2.560948081 39.63 -12.67% 31.68%
GE 86 68.66 1.252548791 44.13 -48.69% 121.72%
IP 75.13 66.08 1.136955206 42.25 -43.76% 109.41%
MCD 60.75 41.65 1.458583433 44 -27.57% 68.93%
N 11.75 7.29 1.611796982 -100.00% 250.00% ?
OI 53 42.42 1.249410655 -100.00% 250.00% ?
PG 76.38 61.37 1.244582043 85.38 11.78% -29.46%
TX 35.88 12.25 2.928979592 37.25 3.82% -9.55%
WX 55.75 50.79 1.097657019 49.75 -10.76% 26.91%
X 21.5 12.08 1.779801325 29.75 38.37% -95.93%
XON 70.13 51.34 1.36599143 38.13 -45.63% 114.07%
Z 38.63 36.45 1.059807956 34.5 -10.69% 26.73%
1988 Price/Upside 1989 Price Change Simulated put gain
PG 85.38 82.27 1.037802358 87 1.90% -4.74% -33.51%
TX 37.25 30.09 1.237952808 51.13 37.26% -100.00%
X 29.75 12.08 2.462748344 29.25 -1.68% 4.20%
1989 Price/Upside 1990 Price Change Simulated put gain
CHV 45.75 42.68 1.071930647 67.75 48.09% -100.00% -31.57%
NAV 5.38 1.17 4.598290598 3.88 -27.88% 69.70%
TX 51.13 29.17 1.752828248 58.88 15.16% -37.89%
X 29.25 27.08 1.080132939 35.75 22.22% -55.56%
XON 44 30.09 1.462279827 50 13.64% -34.09%
1990 Price/Upside 1991 Price Change Simulated put gain
BS 18.5 13.64 1.356304985 14.75 -20.27% 50.68% 28.08%
CHV 67.75 52.26 1.296402602 72.63 7.20% -18.01%
GT 43.54 40.05 1.087141074 18.88 -56.64% 141.59%
KO 77.25 73.5 1.051020408 46.5 -39.81% 99.51%
MO 41.63 38.46 1.082423297 51.75 24.31% -60.77%
NAV 3.88 1.17 3.316239316 2.25 -42.01% 105.03%
PG 70.25 58.32 1.204561043 86.63 23.32% -58.29%
TX 58.88 40.62 1.44953225 60.5 2.75% -6.88%
X 35.75 27.08 1.320162482 30.5 -14.69% 36.71%
XON 50 37.69 1.326611833 51.75 3.50% -8.75%
1991 Price/Upside 1992 Price Change Simulated put gain
BS 14.75 8.6 1.715116279 14 -5.08% 12.71% -20.25%
CHV 72.63 68.48 1.060601636 69 -5.00% 12.49%
GM 34.38 27.81 1.236245955 28.88 -16.00% 39.99%
GT 18.88 12.89 1.464701319 53.5 183.37% -100.00%
PG 86.63 82.95 1.044364075 93.88 8.37% -20.92%
PRM 8.5 8.49 1.001177856 -100.00% 250.00% ?
TX 60.5 50.53 1.19730853 61.25 1.24% -3.10%
UK 16.38 14.75 1.110508475 20.25 23.63% -59.07%
XON 51.75 43.49 1.189928719 60.88 17.64% -44.11%
1992 Price/Upside 1993 Price Change Simulated put gain
CHV 69 49.42 1.396195872 69.5 0.72% -1.81% 17.90%
DD 46.63 35.94 1.297440178 47.13 1.07% -2.68%
GT 53.5 47.7 1.121593291 68.38 27.81% -69.53%
IP 70.75 51.33 1.378336256 66.63 -5.82% 14.56%
JPM 68.63 67.95 1.010007358 65.75 -4.20% 10.49%
KO 80.25 69.61 1.152851602 41.88 -47.81% 119.53%
MMM 95.25 85.4 1.115339578 100.63 5.65% -14.12%
PG 93.88 78.6 1.194402036 53.63 -42.87% 107.18%
TX 61.25 39.66 1.544377206 59.75 -2.45% 6.12%
UTX 54.25 46.4 1.169181034 48.13 -11.28% 28.20%
XON 60.88 41.2 1.477669903 61.13 0.41% -1.03%
1993 Price/Upside 1994 Price Change Simulated put gain
ALD 60.5 59.4 1.018518519 79 30.58% -76.45% -43.87%
BS 16 4.02 3.980099502 20.38 27.38% -68.44%
CHV 69.5 68.17 1.019510048 87.13 25.37% -63.42%
GM 32.25 21.18 1.52266289 54.88 70.17% -100.00%
IP 66.63 52.61 1.266489261 67.75 1.68% -4.20%
PG 53.63 50.69 1.057999605 55.63 3.73% -9.32%
TX 59.75 54 1.106481481 64.75 8.37% -20.92%
XON 61.13 48.5 1.260412371 63.13 3.27% -8.18%
1994 Price/Upside 1995 Price Change Simulated put gain
AA 69.38 15.59 4.450288647 86.63 24.86% -62.16% 16.96%
ALD 79 72.42 1.090858879 34 -56.96% 142.41%
BA 43.25 28.81 1.501214856 47 8.67% -21.68%
BS 20.38 10.71 1.902894491 18 -11.68% 29.20%
GM 54.88 26.27 2.08907499 42.13 -23.23% 58.08%
IBM 56.5 52.09 1.084661163 73.5 30.09% -75.22%
IP 67.75 39.74 1.704831404 75.38 11.26% -28.15%
MMM 108.75 107.44 1.012192852 53.38 -50.91% 127.29%
PG 55.63 54.91 1.013112366 62 11.45% -28.63%
S 57 48.25 1.18134715 46 -19.30% 48.25%
TX 64.75 54.9 1.179417122 59.88 -7.52% 18.80%
UK 22.38 21.23 1.054168629 29.38 31.28% -78.19%
UTX 62 55.02 1.126862959 62.88 1.42% -3.55%
WX 14.13 2.66 5.312030075 12.25 -13.31% 33.26%
XON 63.13 46.88 1.346629693 60.75 -3.77% 9.42%
Z 25.38 15.96 1.590225564 15 -40.90% 102.25%
1995 Price/Upside 1996 Price Change Simulated put gain
AA 86.63 44.61 1.941941269 52.88 -38.96% 97.40% -17.34%
BA 47 31.12 1.510282776 78.38 66.77% -100.00%
GM 42.13 40.75 1.033865031 52.88 25.52% -63.79%
IP 75.38 68.79 1.095798808 37.88 -49.75% 124.37%
TX 59.88 55.91 1.071006975 78.5 31.10% -77.74%
WX 12.25 10.93 1.120768527 16.38 33.71% -84.29%

I know this is ugly, but you can table it in Excel.

The bottom line is, you get close to a 13% arithmetic average on the put simulation through 1995. Not so hot. I tried cut-offs (only taking the top 4, etc) but they didn't seem to help the returns.

Not sure what to make of this, except that markets go up more than they go down.

David
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Author: DrBob2 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1472 of 5982
Subject: Re: Put simulation, BI Date: 12/22/2000 9:27 AM
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<<The bottom line is, you get close to a 13% arithmetic average on the put simulation through 1995. Not so hot.>>
----------

The benefit of your put strategy may be in using it as part of a blend to reduce volatility (and maybe even increase the growth rate). You might try something like 15% puts and 85% BI

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Author: dowbuys Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1473 of 5982
Subject: Re: Put simulation, BI Date: 12/22/2000 9:47 AM
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David,

The "problem" with your results in this terrific study you've conducted is that you used the incorrect "sell" signal.

Benchmark Investing only sells when a stock hits is 3-to-5 year upside price target, not its current year upside price target. This explains why the results you found were not so hot.

Hope this helps.

P.S. In anticipation of your next probable question: no, I don't have the 3-to-5 year upside price targets on any Excel worksheet yet. Plus, I'm at the end of a lengthy back-test of Benchmark Investing with the S&P 100, so I won't have anytime soon to get this information to you. Sorry.

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Author: davidMN Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1474 of 5982
Subject: Re: Put simulation, BI Date: 12/22/2000 10:49 AM
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Benchmark Investing only sells when a stock hits is 3-to-5 year upside price target, not its current year upside price target. This explains why the results you found were not so hot.
>>

Thanks for pointing this out. The problem with using the 3-5 year upside target (besides that I don't have the data), is that there are several years with only 1 or 2 picks. I suspect that there would be more than a few years with no picks (from the Dow at least), and that'd be hard to draw any conclusions.

I think you're probably right, that the 3-5 year upside would probably produce better results, just that for this, you'd HAVE to have an expanded universe.

Thanks

David

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Author: minisimon One star, 50 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1475 of 5982
Subject: Re: Put simulation, BI Date: 12/22/2000 2:39 PM
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This is a great effort, David.

Just wanted to repost it for readability. 

(Warning: wide post)


1973	Price/Upside			1974 Price	Change	 Put Gain  Overall Gain/Loss
AA	53.13	53.41	0.994757536	48.5	       -8.71%	 21.79%	       53.84%
AMB	42.13	39.13	1.076667519	32.25	       -23.45%	 58.63%	
EK	148.38	146.23	1.014702865	116	       -21.82%	 54.56%	
PG	111.5	100.76	1.106589917	92	       -17.49%	 43.72%	
S	116	60.62	1.913559881	80.25	       -30.82%	 77.05%	
SD	79.63	63.62	1.251650424	35	       -56.05%	 140.12%	
XON	87.5	75.61	1.157254331	94.13		7.58%	-18.94%	

1974	Price/Upside			1975 Price	Change	 Put Gain  Overall Gain/Loss
WX	25.38	6.97	3.641319943	10	       -60.60%	 151.50%       151.50%

1975	Price/Upside			1976 Price	Change	 Put Gain  Overall Gain/Loss
AA	29.88	29.89	0.99966544	38.63	        29.28%	-73.21%       -73.21%
1976	Price/Upside			1977 Price	Change	 Put Gain  Overall Gain/Loss
X	65	68.8	0.944767442	49.75	       -23.46%	 58.65%	       58.65%

1977	Price/Upside			1978 Price	Change	 Put Gain  Overall Gain/Loss
ESM	35.75	36.46	0.980526604	30	       -16.08%	 40.21%	       83.56%
N	32.63	20.35	1.603439803	17.13	       -47.50%	 118.76%	
X	49.75	15.31	3.249510124	31.5	       -36.68%	 91.71%	

1978	Price/Upside			1979 Price	Change	 Put Gain  Overall Gain/Loss
N	17.13	16.18	1.058714462	15.75	       -8.06%	 20.14%	       50.74%
X	31.5	18.31	1.720371382	21.25	       -32.54%	 81.35%	

1979	Price/Upside			1980 Price	Change	 Put Gain  Overall Gain/Loss
ACD	28.25	4.19	6.742243437	-100.00%	250.00%	 ??	

1980	Price/Upside			1981 Price	Change	 Put Gain  Overall Gain/Loss
AC	35.38	36.12	0.979512735	30.38	       -14.13%	 35.33%	      -13.39%
BS	21.13	21.39	0.987844787	26.38	        24.85%	-62.12%	

1981	Price/Upside			1982 Price	Change	 Put Gain  Overall Gain/Loss
AA	59.63	37.99	1.569623585	25.63	       -57.02%	 142.55%       106.98%
GM	45	8.87	5.073280722	38.5	       -14.44%	 36.11%	
JM	24.75	13.8	1.793478261	14.88	       -39.88%	 99.70%	
SD	99.5	58	1.715517241	42.88	       -56.90%	 142.26%	
XON	80.63	55.29	1.458310725	31.25	       -61.24%	 153.11%	
Z	24.75	19.38	1.277089783	18	       -27.27%	 68.18%	

1982	Price/Upside			1983 Price	Change	 Put Gain  Overall Gain/Loss
AC	34.38	10.16	3.383858268	30.88	       -10.18%	 25.45%	      -0.05%
ALD	43.88	43.19	1.01597592	32.38	       -26.21%	 65.52%	
GM	38.5	27.43	1.403572731	62.38	        62.03%	-100.00%	
IP	39.13	29.79	1.31352803	48.38	        23.64%	-59.10%	
OI	29.63	10.8	2.743518519	28.25	       -4.66%	 11.64%	
SD	42.88	33.66	1.273915627	32	       -25.37%	 63.43%	
UK	51.38	34.94	1.470520893	52.88	        2.92%	-7.30%	

1983	Price/Upside			1984 Price	Change	 Put Gain  Overall Gain/Loss
AA	31	18.46	1.679306609	44.8	        44.52%	-100.00%      -22.95%
AC	30.88	30.19	1.02285525	46.88	        51.81%	-100.00%	
AXP	64.25	58.29	1.102247384	32.63	       -49.21%	 123.04%	
EK	86	38.29	2.246017237	76.13	       -11.48%	 28.69%	
GT	35	30.87	1.133786848	30.38	       -13.20%	 33.00%	
IP	48.38	35.8	1.351396648	59	        21.95%	-54.88%	
OI	28.25	18.94	1.49155227	37.38	        32.32%	-80.80%	
T	59.38	15.25	3.893770492	61.5	        3.57%	-8.93%	
UK	52.88	23.2	2.279310345	62.75	        18.66%	-46.66%	

1984	Price/Upside			1985 Price	Change	 Put Gain  Overall Gain/Loss
AA	44.88	58	0.773793103	37	       -17.56%	 43.89%	       24.72%
AC	46.88	55.29	0.847892928	50.5	        7.72%	-19.30%	
AMB	59.25	19.38	3.057275542	64.25	        8.44%	-21.10%	
EK	76.13	67.42	1.129190151	71.88	       -5.58%	 13.96%	
GE	58.63	55.54	1.055635578	56.63	       -3.41%	 8.53%	
IP	59	36.77	1.604568942	53.88	       -8.68%	 21.69%	
OI	37.38	36.54	1.022988506	40.25	        7.68%	-19.19%	
TX	35.88	28.6	1.254545455	34.13	       -4.88%	 12.19%	
UK	62.75	41.52	1.511319846	36.75	       -41.43%	 103.59%	
WX	54.75	53.86	1.016524322	26.13	       -52.27%	 130.68%	
X	30.38	13.78	2.204644412	26.13	       -13.99%	 34.97%	
Z	35.13	33.9	1.036283186	37	        5.32%	-13.31%	

1985	Price/Upside			1986 Price	Change	 Put Gain Overall Gain/Loss
AA	37	12.67	2.920284136	38.5	        4.05%	-10.14%	     -32.29%
AC	50.5	45.38	1.112825033	60	        18.81%	-47.03%	
ALD	34.5	23.56	1.46434635	46.75	        35.51%	-88.77%	
AMB	64.25	63.86	1.006107109	-100.00%        250.00%	 ??	
EK	71.88	34.59	2.078057242	50	       -30.44%	 76.10%	
GE	56.63	55.31	1.023865485	72.75	        28.47%  -71.16%	
GT	26	25.4	1.023622047	31.25	        20.19%	-50.48%	
IP	53.88	19.6	2.748979592	50.75	       -5.81%	 14.52%	
N	12.38	2.7	4.585185185	13.25	        7.03%	-17.57%	
PG	57	52.58	1.084062381	69.75	        22.37%	-55.92%	
UK	36.75	10.37	3.543876567	70.88	        92.87%	-100.00%	
X	26.13	22.64	1.154151943	26.63	        1.91%	-4.78%	

1986	Price/Upside			1987 Price	Change	 Put Gain  Overall Gain/Loss
AA	38.5	13.28	2.899096386	33.88	       -12.00%	 30.00%	      -20.33%
AC	60	53.22	1.127395716	84.13	        40.22%	-100.54%	
CHV	38.13	20.65	1.846489104	45.38	        19.01%	-47.53%	
DD	67.88	65.16	1.041743401	84	        23.75%	-59.37%	
EK	50	23.08	2.166377816	68.59	        37.18%	-92.95%	
GE	72.75	55.19	1.318173582	86	        18.21%	-45.53%	
GM	70.38	64.9	1.084437596	66	       -6.22% 	 15.56%	
GT	31.25	24.71	1.264670174	41.88	        34.02%	-85.04%	
IP	50.75	43.74	1.160265203	75.13	        48.04%	-100.00%	
MCD	80.88	72.06	1.122398002	60.75	       -24.89%	 62.22%	
OI	52.75	42.42	1.243517209	53	        0.47%	-1.18%	
PG	69.75	51.73	1.348347187	76.38	        9.51%	-23.76%	
S	39	38.74	1.006711409	39.75	        1.92%	-4.81%	
TX	30	17.21	1.743172574	35.88	        19.60%	-49.00%	
UK	70.88	30.33	2.336960106	22.5	       -68.26%	 170.64%	
UTX	43.75	27.55	1.588021779	46	        5.14%	-12.86%	
WX	44.5	41.52	1.07177264	55.75	        25.28%	-63.20%	
XON	55.13	48.11	1.14591561	70.13	        27.21%	-68.02%	
Z	60	53.54	1.120657452	38.63	       -35.62%	89.04%	

1987	Price/Upside			1988 Price	Change	 Put Gain  Overall Gain/Loss
AC	84.13	64.2	1.310436137	-100.00%	250.00%	               37.79%	
ALD	40.13	30.26	1.326173166	28.25	       -29.60%	 74.01%	
AXP	57.5	22.17	2.593594948	22.38	       -61.08%	 152.70%	
BS	6.25	3.61	1.731301939	16.75	        168.00%	-100.00%	
CHV	45.38	17.72	2.560948081	39.63	       -12.67%	 31.68%	
GE	86	68.66	1.252548791	44.13	       -48.69%	 121.72%	
IP	75.13	66.08	1.136955206	42.25	       -43.76%	 109.41%	
MCD	60.75	41.65	1.458583433	44	       -27.57%	 68.93%	
N	11.75	7.29	1.611796982	-100.00%	250.00%	   ?	
OI	53	42.42	1.249410655	-100.00%	250.00%	   ?	
PG	76.38	61.37	1.244582043	85.38	        11.78%	-29.46%	
TX	35.88	12.25	2.928979592	37.25	        3.82%	-9.55%	
WX	55.75	50.79	1.097657019	49.75	      -10.76%	 26.91%	
X	21.5	12.08	1.779801325	29.75	       38.37%	-95.93%	
XON	70.13	51.34	1.36599143	38.13	      -45.63%	 114.07%	
Z	38.63	36.45	1.059807956	34.5	      -10.69%	 26.73%	

1988	Price/Upside			1989 Price	Change	 Put Gain  Overall Gain/Loss
PG	85.38	82.27	1.037802358	87	        1.90%   -4.74%	      -33.51%
TX	37.25	30.09	1.237952808	51.13	        37.26%	-100.00%	
X	29.75	12.08	2.462748344	29.25	       -1.68%	 4.20%	

1989	Price/Upside			1990 Price	Change	 Put Gain  Overall Gain/Loss
CHV	45.75	42.68	1.071930647	67.75	        48.09%	-100.00%      -31.57%
NAV	5.38	1.17	4.598290598	 3.88	       -27.88%	 69.70%	
TX	51.13	29.17	1.752828248	58.88	        15.16%	-37.89%	
X	29.25	27.08	1.080132939	35.75	        22.22%	-55.56%	
XON	44	30.09	1.462279827	50	        13.64%	-34.09%	

1990	Price/Upside			1991 Price	Change	 Put Gain  Overall Gain/Loss
BS	18.5	13.64	1.356304985	14.75	       -20.27%	 50.68%	       28.08%
CHV	67.75	52.26	1.296402602	72.63	         7.20%	-18.01%	
GT	43.54	40.05	1.087141074	18.88	       -56.64%	141.59%	
KO	77.25	73.5	1.051020408	46.5	       -39.81%	 99.51%	
MO	41.63	38.46	1.082423297	51.75	        24.31%	-60.77%	
NAV	3.88	1.17	3.316239316	 2.25	       -42.01%	105.03%	
PG	70.25	58.32	1.204561043	86.63	        23.32%	-58.29%	
TX	58.88	40.62	1.44953225	60.5	         2.75%	 -6.88%	
X	35.75	27.08	1.320162482	30.5	       -14.69%	 36.71%	
XON	50	37.69	1.326611833	51.75	         3.50%	 -8.75%	

1991	Price/Upside			1992 Price	Change	 Put Gain  Overall Gain/Loss
BS	14.75	8.6	1.715116279	14	       -5.08%	 12.71%	      -20.25%
CHV	72.63	68.48	1.060601636	69	       -5.00%	 12.49%	
GM	34.38	27.81	1.236245955	28.88	      -16.00%	 39.99%	
GT	18.88	12.89	1.464701319	53.5	      183.37%  -100.00%	
PG	86.63	82.95	1.044364075	93.88	        8.37%	-20.92%	
PRM	8.5	8.49	1.001177856   -100.00%        250.00%	   ?	
TX	60.5	50.53	1.19730853	61.25	        1.24%	 -3.10%	
UK	16.38	14.75	1.110508475	20.25	       23.63%	-59.07%	
XON	51.75	43.49	1.189928719	60.88	       17.64%	-44.11%	

1992	Price/Upside			1993 Price	Change	Put Gain  Overall Gain/Loss
CHV	69	49.42	1.396195872	 69.5	        0.72%  -1.81%	      17.90%
DD	46.63	35.94	1.297440178	 47.13	        1.07%  -2.68%	
GT	53.5	47.7	1.121593291	 68.38	       27.81%  -69.53%	
IP	70.75	51.33	1.378336256	 66.63	       -5.82%	14.56%	
JPM	68.63	67.95	1.010007358	 65.75	       -4.20%	10.49%	
KO	80.25	69.61	1.152851602	 41.88	       -47.81% 119.53%	
MMM	95.25	85.4	1.115339578	100.63	         5.65% -14.12%	
PG	93.88	78.6	1.194402036	 53.63	       -42.87% 107.18%	
TX	61.25	39.66	1.544377206	 59.75	        -2.45%   6.12%	
UTX	54.25	46.4	1.169181034	 48.13	       -11.28%	28.20%	
XON	60.88	41.2	1.477669903	61.13	0.41%	-1.03%	
1993	Price/Upside			1994 Price	Change	Put Gain Overall Gain/Loss
ALD	60.5	59.4	1.018518519	79	        30.58% -76.45%	    -43.87%
BS	16	4.02	3.980099502	20.38	        27.38% -68.44%	
CHV	69.5	68.17	1.019510048	87.13	        25.37% -63.42%	
GM	32.25	21.18	1.52266289	54.88	        70.17%-100.00%	
IP	66.63	52.61	1.266489261	67.75	         1.68%	-4.20%	
PG	53.63	50.69	1.057999605	55.63	         3.73%	-9.32%	
TX	59.75	54	1.106481481	64.75	         8.37% -20.92%	
XON	61.13	48.5	1.260412371	63.13	         3.27%	-8.18%	

1994	Price/Upside		      1995 Price	Change	Put Gain   Overall Gain/Loss
AA	69.38	15.59	4.450288647	86.63	        24.86%	-62.16%        16.96%
ALD	79	72.42	1.090858879	34	       -56.96%	142.41%	
BA	43.25	28.81	1.501214856	47	         8.67%	-21.68%	
BS	20.38	10.71	1.902894491	18	       -11.68%	29.20%	
GM	54.88	26.27	2.08907499	42.13	       -23.23%	58.08%	
IBM	56.5	52.09	1.084661163	73.5	        30.09% -75.22%	
IP	67.75	39.74	1.704831404	75.38	        11.26% -28.15%	
MMM	108.75	107.44	1.012192852	53.38	       -50.91% 127.29%	
PG	55.63	54.91	1.013112366	62	        11.45% -28.63%	
S	57	48.25	1.18134715	46	       -19.30%	48.25%	
TX	64.75	54.9	1.179417122	59.88	        -7.52%	18.80%	
UK	22.38	21.23	1.054168629	29.38	        31.28% -78.19%	
UTX	62	55.02	1.126862959	62.88	         1.42%  -3.55%	
WX	14.13	2.66	5.312030075	12.25	        -13.31%	33.26%	
XON	63.13	46.88	1.346629693	60.75	         -3.77%	 9.42%	
Z	25.38	15.96	1.590225564	15	        -40.90%102.25%	

1995	Price/Upside	1996	Price		       Change	Put Gain  Overall Gain/Loss
AA	86.63	44.61	1.941941269	52.88	      -38.96%	97.40%	     -17.34%
BA	47	31.12	1.510282776	78.38	       66.77% -100.00%	
GM	42.13	40.75	1.033865031	52.88	       25.52%  -63.79%	
IP	75.38	68.79	1.095798808	37.88	      -49.75%  124.37%	
TX	59.88	55.91	1.071006975	78.5	       31.10%  -77.74%	
WX	12.25	10.93	1.120768527	16.38	       33.71%  -84.29%	



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