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Author: ResN Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 19222  
Subject: Q For Intercst Date: 5/19/2013 10:15 AM
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Have you seen anything in the financial literature that you feel changes the safety of the 4% SWR, or are all the articles and pundits just spouting off financial porn?
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Author: CABob Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 18399 of 19222
Subject: Re: Q For Intercst Date: 5/19/2013 1:35 PM
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I also would be interested in any replies, but, in the meantime you may be interested in http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/15/business/retirementspecial...
This may be the financial porn you mentioned.

Bob

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Author: ResN Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 18400 of 19222
Subject: Re: Q For Intercst Date: 5/19/2013 1:42 PM
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That percentage was calculated at a time when portfolios were earning about 8 percent. Not so anymore. Today portfolios generally earn much less, about 3.5 percent to 4 percent, and stocks are high-priced, which is linked historically to below-average future performance.

This is from the NYT article. And yes, I consider almost everything in the NYT to be some sort of porn, but that's a topic for another day. The writer is an idiot. The original research cover almost 100 years of data, which included high and low interest rates, plus the Great Depression. When he refers to "today's" earning, he referring to only a few years. I don't know where he was looking, but my portfolio is a 50/50 portfolio, and my returns over the past 5 years have been very much higher, as it hugely higher. Anyway, this is why I wanted to ask intercst about this type of financial puditry, because he knows more about the subject than anyone else around these parts. If he thinks it's financial porn, then it probably is, even though he's also a bleeding heart liberal on almost everything else.

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Author: intercst Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 18405 of 19222
Subject: Re: Q For Intercst Date: 5/20/2013 6:05 PM
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CABob posts,

I also would be interested in any replies, but, in the meantime you may be interested in http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/15/business/retirementspecial......
This may be the financial porn you mentioned.

</snip>


I didn't see anything new in the NY Times article -- just a lot of financial advisers predicting doom and trying to sell you an annuity. I particularly liked the guy who said the 4% rule was bad, yet he's telling his clients to take 4.5%.

I just completed my annual update on Real-LIfe Retiree Investment Returns.

http://retireearlyhomepage.com/reallife13.html

As the last chart in the article shows, even if you retired in the year 2000 at the top of the Internet bubble, you haven't done too bad if you're well diversified. The cost of investing internationally has come down quite a bit in the last 20 years. I wouldn't have a problem investing half of my stock allocation outside of the US today using low-cost index funds.

intercst

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Author: ResN Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 18406 of 19222
Subject: Re: Q For Intercst Date: 5/20/2013 6:58 PM
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Thanks, intercst.

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