Q4 Earnings 23 Jan 08
Transcript http://seekingalpha.com/article/61343-netflix-inc-q4-2007-earnings-call-transcript
TMFGebinr's take on Stock Advisor board http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=26313075&bid=

My take:
Good numbers and guidance.

As Jim, TMFGebinr, said over five years (that's 22 quarters), they have beaten estimates 19 times
So it is probable that they have low balled on guidance for 2008.

I really like the fact they are going to keep marketing costs down. To me that shows sensible business management and the first sign they realise they can balance growth with profit. While Reed has always been a visionary and great at building for the future this suggests he may also be able to build a business and focus on margins and profits.
I see others here disagree with that view, but my view remains show me the money. Reducing SAC is the easiest and I consider the best way to improve margins. Growth is a story, profits are realish.

It’s great that they top customer satisfaction in American ecommerce, bloody fantastic actually. Shows a wonderful focus.

Very settling comments on VOD not being a significant threat for now. Apple in no way a concern to them.

We expanded one year ago from a DVD rental service to a service that both streams content and mails DVD for one low price. Over the last year, we tripled the amount of content we stream from 2,000 to more than 6,000 movies and T.V. shows. And last week, we simplified and enhanced the Netflix streaming feature by offering unlimited streaming Not bad for a year, not bad at all.

Our biggest advantage in online streaming is not our technology or content contracts, but our ability to bundle streaming with DVD by mail for a large and growing subscriber base. If a consumer spends time on the Internet and enjoys movies, they are likely to become a Netflix DVD rental subscriber.
Remember this when competitors emerge this year, this as they have every year.

I like NFLX more and more; however, its history and even the number of posts on the SA NFLX board indicate NFLX is prone to fear more than most. Sell offs are inevitable, so it makes sense to me to sell more calls on NFLX at a price I’d be happy to sell.
Their mid point guidance of $1.18 gives a quick historical P/E based eoy target of $24-36.
My current weighted intrinsic value is $31.

I expect NFLX to rise over the next week or two as analysts upgrade estimates and these good earnings are digested. I plan on selling calls at the time on half my position or if the price rises above $28 will consider selling some shares directly.

Dean
Long Netflix