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Author: BuildMWell Big gold star, 5000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 41614  
Subject: Re: Jim Cramer Piece for me and saintjadee Date: 10/8/2005 9:54 AM
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"Please enlighten us as to why it will be worth more than twice its current price. Where is the worldwide demand/scarcity? And why will it be different this time? Just before 2000 many were saying buying gold was the only way to safeguard against the year 2000 crisis." - tman77

I cannot tell you why it will or will not double, but I can tell you what I think about this situation. I think it is all about hype and selling a story. The people who bought Gold at $270/ounce want to sell it to someone at as high a price as possible. They want out of Gold before it goes down...but, how high can it go?

If enough people can be persuaded that Gold will double, the price will go up as more people suck up the available supply. Then, when enough suckers own that Gold, the market will suddenly realize that Gold is being mined every day for under $200/ounce. Then the hype will turn negative and the people holding the Gold will find few buyers at the inflated price.

This is what I see with oil also. In fact, this is what I see with many things including many stocks. This is just the game in action. Check out most stocks that are at their 30-year high CAGR and you will find scant justification for the inflated price. Granted, the company was probably doing very well for several years in the recent past, but the hype is designed to off-load the company's shares onto people who fail to see the big picture. The buyers are led to concentrate on the more recent price run-up rather than the underlying value. I know, I was the sucker for way too many years and I bought into the hype. The story was always simple and it sounded rational.

But, let's not get mad at the game, let's get even. The BMW Method is aimed at playing the game without buying into anyone else's hype. We study the history of things we want to buy and understand the value before we pay a dime of our hard-earned money for anything. Oil, Gold, pork bellies, corn, sugar, stocks or bonds...the thing we are buying is of no consequence because we can spot the value when it is there.

For instance, if I were in the market for an SUV, I would be getting very interested right now. The negative hype is at a peak and the price is plummeting downward. Meanwhile, the SUV that was worth $25,000 six months ago is now selling for $16,000 and going lower...it's a buyers market. People who believe the hype are taking what they can get for their SUV and they are buying hybrids and paying top dollar. But, what is a barrel of oil really worth? Isn't that what caused the SUV market to collapse?

The problem is people believe what they see on the television. They have learned not to think for themselves and to just react to what they think is happening based on the story. The people who control the story are trying to control the markets by controlling attitudes. That is the game.

I hate the game, but I have learned how to play it to my advantage. The BMW Method is my way of sorting out the game for myself. If it can help someone else, I am very pleased. But, do not buy my hype...think for yourself.
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