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Author: brewer12345 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 5138  
Subject: Re: FIRE Benchmarks Date: 9/23/2003 2:18 PM
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"The SWR studies are based on safe withdrawal rates for past much higher historical returns, therefore they are inaccurate going forward because US results will be materially lower."

This only holds if you realy think that US markets are more over-valued than they were at any time in the past hundred years or so. I don't know about you, but my crystal ball is in the shop. Since that is the case, I believe that historical experience is probably a reasonable guide to the future. If you disagree, fine, but don't present your guess about future returns as fact.

"Diversification away from overvalued markets will allow for increased returns, less risk, less volatility and high withdrawals "

This may be true, but only if what you are diversifying into is less overvalued and uncorrelated with US markets. Given the increasing tendency of developed markets to trade together, I think that one should probably devote considerably time and analysis to see if ex-US stock and bond holdings make up for the increased cost these investments would entail.

I don't have a problem with presenting alternatives. Lets just be careful how we present things and avoid sloppiness that could be hazardous to one's FIRE status.
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