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Author: pauleckler Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 76420  
Subject: Re: Market Valuation Date: 4/12/2012 3:08 PM
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Random Walk theory teaches that the price of all mutual funds is the true value taking into account all known information. Investment opportunities come from guessing what will happen next.

The weeks before earnings reports are special news periods because rules do not allow companies to say much during this quiet period. Hence, all sorts of speculation makes headlines and rules the markets.

People have been relatively pessimistic about how big a bite the slow down in Europe will take out of earnings of US companies. That negativity is what makes stocks "fully valued."

We all hope that earnings will turn out to be better than that, or at least to spot the stocks that will do well in spite of that. Two I just posted on Foolish Collective are Tractor Supply Company and Cytec. Alcoa did better than expected.

Talking heads don't actually know much. They merely find something to think about to fill whatever media space (between the ads) they are allocated.
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