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Author: rrjjgg Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 252015  
Subject: Re: Sell in May/June sysetm buy signal Date: 10/14/2012 5:48 PM
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RandomDoc,

I suggest you review the NASDAQ new highs -new lows signal.
Your graph uses regular simple MA. The signal uses short term EXPONENTIAL MA crossovers. In the basic signal that Zee introduced, he used a 9 day average >0 and Jim then suggested a 13 day average >0. Jim then gave the 'rising'
signal which only is used when his first test above is <0. An easy way to chart this signal is to use certain MACDs since they are based on exp ma. The basic tests (at stockcharts.com)are MACD(9,0,0) and
MACD(13,0,0). Rising variants are MACD(9,29,0) ( a fast one I like--I picked 29 sonce it's about 3 times the 9 day EMA which makes it similar to Jim's which, I think, is MACD(13,42,0). To read the signal just look at the MACD graph. If it's positive, stay in stocks. If negative, duck, the bear is here.

Both 'rising' versions are currently negative.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAHL&p=D&b=5&g...

If you look at the last three years, you'll see the primary test always went negative or to just above 0 after it peaked, then dropped to Friday's level. This suggests to me that the seasonal signal based on this signal
could remain bearish for a few more weeks.

rrjjgg
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