[Ray] knows very well exactly how the spreadsheet would need to run to account for the voatility risks,In my opinion, no one chooses a retirement vehicle by thinking in this manner. They say to themselves, “How much risk am I willing to take?”--and, yes, it’s a gut decision. If they’re able to steel themselves against volatility, they’ll take the S&P500 B&H because—and this is a fact—at the end of 40 years, the S&P500 B&H account will have more money in it. “All” they have to do is keep a stiff upper lip when declines occur. This is something of a skill—but a skill that will be rewarded by those who can tolerate a program of long S&P500 buy-and-hold.I don’t think it’s possible to assign “reserves” or a Sortino quantifier or anything else to arrive at a dollar value for risk. $1 million is $1 million, no matter how you choose to invest it. Risk taker? Choose the S&P500 B&H. Can’t stand to lose anything? Choose the IUL. You won’t earn as much, but you’ll sleep better.
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