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Author: rev2217 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 489  
Subject: Re: Insider Trading and Upgrades (RCL) Date: 8/30/2011 12:28 PM
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Ray,

Thanks for the reply and insight. I've been on a Royal Caribbean cruise a few times and I've been on those of their competitors as well. My family unanimously agrees that RCL was the best of the lot, which sparked my interest in this stock.

I gravitated to Celebrity Cruises, but... well, "same church, different pew," as they say. I also consistently find good comments about both lines on cruising web sites like CruiseMates (http://www.cruisemates.com for home page).

I wasn't aware that the stock hit 5.70...but it does make sense. Travel and leisure would get hurt the most in a recession logically I guess...

The drop was entirely due to speculative panic selling. As I said in the earlier post, the company's ships continued to operate full cruises throughout the entire recession, with fares remaining quite stable. The company did suspend its dividend, but only due to the credit crunch and consequent doubts as to availability of financing to buy new ships.

... but I'm holding this stock for 3+ years at least and I think it can do quite well in that time frame.

I think that this stock can do quite well for several decades. The cruise industry has a relatively long time constant due to the time required to build new ships, which typically remain in service for about twenty years.

Several years ago, I was at a seminar on investing. The presenter remarked that it usually takes as long for a new industry to go from 10% of its potential market to 90% of its potential market as it takes to build to 10% of its potential market. The cruise industry as we know it has existed for four decades and it is not even to 10% yet of its potential market yet.

Thanks for the help, Norm!

You're welcome!

Norm.
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