UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (135) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next
Author: AliciaThyme Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 254188  
Subject: Re: Does this stuff work ? Date: 2/13/2013 11:19 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 14
Rayvt (241569)

I'll stand by my remark about look-ahead bias.

None of my process looks ahead.

Your comment about Kazakhmys was interesting & puzzling. First, yahoo finance doesn't show it on any US market, just London, Hong Kong, etc

My opening post (241546) explained that my dataset uses the UK FTSE 100 constituents. Those are the top 100 companies in UK listed by market capitalisation. I use those companies because they are highly liquid with very small buy/sell ratios.

you say you sold it at 18% profit in 22 days. But I don't see anything in your posted rules that says to sell it. Looks to me that you just do things ad-hoc.


See Rule 3 - it is about when to sell.
It says to sell the best to buy the next. I sold Kazakhmys because it was the best at the time I bought another stock, RBS, which is still a current holding at 33% profit. However, that is beside the point which is to illustrate that losers can become winners.

contrary to popular belief, modelling has demonstrated the very significant benefit of rebuy on 50% loss.
This is astonishing to me. All I can gather from this is that your experience must be extremely limited......You need to look at actual data, since reality trumps theory.


I have been investing in stocks and shares for over 20 years and had just two failures (GEC and Northern Rock). My 5-year model is based on 86 sequential dataruns over the last 10 years covering both rising and falling markets and it is not theory - I have been using it for real for the last 5 years.


You come up with a great theory, look only at data that supports that theory, look only at a time period where that theory works

Not so. All my data is real and not selected in any way.

Enough of all this negativity. I have offered you a system in response to a request at post 214366 (dividends20) that works exceedingly well for me in UK and might conceivably work well for you too. I have nothing to gain - and you might.

The acid test is for you to create a spread sheet and try the scheme on you own buying data from the last 5 years.

I would suggest that anyone involved in, say, an investment club meeting once a month to make a buying decision could do well to try the system on their past data to see if it would have given a better result.

Alicia
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post  
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (135) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next

Announcements

Foolanthropy 2014!
By working with young, first-time moms, Nurse-Family Partnership is able to truly change lives – for generations to come.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Post of the Day:
Macro Economics

Looking at Currency Ratios
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
Community Home
Speak Your Mind, Start Your Blog, Rate Your Stocks

Community Team Fools - who are those TMF's?
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and "#1 Media Company to Work For" (BusinessInsider 2011)! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.
Advertisement