No. of Recommendations: 14
Rayvt (241569)

I'll stand by my remark about look-ahead bias.

None of my process looks ahead.

Your comment about Kazakhmys was interesting & puzzling. First, yahoo finance doesn't show it on any US market, just London, Hong Kong, etc

My opening post (241546) explained that my dataset uses the UK FTSE 100 constituents. Those are the top 100 companies in UK listed by market capitalisation. I use those companies because they are highly liquid with very small buy/sell ratios.

you say you sold it at 18% profit in 22 days. But I don't see anything in your posted rules that says to sell it. Looks to me that you just do things ad-hoc.

See Rule 3 - it is about when to sell.
It says to sell the best to buy the next. I sold Kazakhmys because it was the best at the time I bought another stock, RBS, which is still a current holding at 33% profit. However, that is beside the point which is to illustrate that losers can become winners.

contrary to popular belief, modelling has demonstrated the very significant benefit of rebuy on 50% loss.
This is astonishing to me. All I can gather from this is that your experience must be extremely limited......You need to look at actual data, since reality trumps theory.

I have been investing in stocks and shares for over 20 years and had just two failures (GEC and Northern Rock). My 5-year model is based on 86 sequential dataruns over the last 10 years covering both rising and falling markets and it is not theory - I have been using it for real for the last 5 years.

You come up with a great theory, look only at data that supports that theory, look only at a time period where that theory works

Not so. All my data is real and not selected in any way.

Enough of all this negativity. I have offered you a system in response to a request at post 214366 (dividends20) that works exceedingly well for me in UK and might conceivably work well for you too. I have nothing to gain - and you might.

The acid test is for you to create a spread sheet and try the scheme on you own buying data from the last 5 years.

I would suggest that anyone involved in, say, an investment club meeting once a month to make a buying decision could do well to try the system on their past data to see if it would have given a better result.

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