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Read an IBD paper, which tries to explain the negative trend for POT stock:

1) Farmers on the defensive, wary of high prices, hence reducing demand for fertilizers (although POT expect the demand to pick up from Q2 and further)
2) In the US, fertilizer stocks are closely linked to corn prices. For corn prices - some analysts expect tight supply for this year, but there are other opinions - slowdown in China, lower demand in Europe, predicted surplus of corn for this year, could send the corn prices heading down (to $4 / bushel)

Conclusion: 2012 going to be rough year for fertilizer stocks.

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