I have been lurking on this board and investing mechanically since June, 1999. As I was learning the ropes, I toyed with the Foolish Four, and various PEG and RS screens. My investments have been made in my IRA account, with the usual annual contributions.In late 2006, I began making use of Zeelotes spreadsheets, and came up with the following blend:ARS (Keelix)Quality-Earnings (Keelix)High_Relative_Value (Keelix)LowPE_ZLTD (VL)YieldEarnYear (VL)YieldEarnYear2 (VL)I got a FolioFN account and started this blend in February 2007. I held the top 4 stocks from each screen for 4 weeks, rebalancing 1 stock from each screen each week to vary my start dates.Like all of us, I got smacked down in late 2008, losing about 40% of my value. Much of early 2009 was spent studying the work that Mungofitch and Zeelotes contributed on timing systems. I have since added a variation of a NH-NL indicator to my system. Outside of that adjustment, I have just been following the screens, since real life hasn’t given me the time to keep up with the research.So, how has it all worked out? I don’t know to calculate the CAGR on my investments, but according to the Performance chart on FolioFN, I have earned around 25% in the 5 1/2 years of this blend, which includes climbing out of the 2008 hole. Since the the equivalent investment in the S&P 500 would have returned around 10%, I have been pleased.Of the 6 screens, Quality_Earnings, LowPE_ZLTD and YieldEarnYear2 have been the superstars. ARS has broken even. The big losers over the time have been High_Relative_Value and YieldEarnYear. Both of those screens have lost money over the time that I have run them. YEY especially really surprised me.A couple of weeks ago, I took a look back at recent posts, took some recommendations about screens to consider, and re-ran backtests on Keelix and backtest.org. I replaced the 2 low performing screens with PIH_CSO_Safe and SomeMoJoeSafe. I’ll let you know in about 5 years how this blend works out.I have been grateful for all of the brilliance that been part of this board over my 12 years here. I have discovered an investment method that makes sense to me, has provided adequate returns, and allows me to sleep.
Thanks. That is very helpful for a newbie like me.
When you say the s and p earned 10%, are you counting dividends?
These are very rough, inaccurate numbers, but yes, including dividends.
It has really worked for you then. That's great.
Thanks for posting your real life results. While the end results may not seem that impressive, the bottom line is you beat the SP over the last 5 years, better than over 80% of the "professional" money managers who consistantly underperform the SP.I too have been practicing MI since the Foolish4, Spark & Keystone days and have had realtime market beating results. I'm not sure the problem you are having with your YEY screen. I personally have used YEY 1-3(or4) HTD6 for that past 6-8 years and have been very happy with it. Not sure if it is your weekly trade of one stock or what, but if you do a simple backtest of the YEY HTD that I use the retuns are more that acceptable and pretty much what I've experienced: http://backtest.org/8912uHD(YLDEARNYEAR)13s6Looking at YEY2 it is even better, so much better I may have to give it a look at for this coming year blend:http://backtest.org/8912uHD(YLDEARNYEAR2)13s6Anyways I think you can see that you are on the right track with MI and your blend of screens. The PIH & Fundi/Mo_Joe families of screens are great additions. You might want to give the YEY family a little more time, it appears to be a consistant screens that just keeps plodding along. Add in a simple, not to hyper trigger happy timing signal like the 99 day no high, bernie cutoff or 180 day negative SMA slope and I think you will smooth out the rough times and be good able to stick through MI during the good, bad and ugly time of investing.Good luck and here is to another sucessful 15 years of MI investing.Cory
I wonder if the yey would work better if you used a htd factor with it.
Now that I think about it, part of the problem with the way I evaluated the performance of YEY was caused by the fact that I was also running YEY2, and not buying duplicates. I would always evaluate YEY2 first, and when I looked at YEY I would drop farther down the list if a stock was already "owned" by another screen. YEY was not receiving full credit for its top picks.Either way, I am keeping YEY2, so I have that family covered. Adding the other 2 families will hopefully reduce the duplication.
I want to thank you for posting this. I would really like to see more examples of how MI is working out for people in the "real world". I would also like to thank everyone on the board for sharing their insights. In an effort to encourage more of these testimonials, and to hopefully make a tiny contribution to the board, I would like to post my MI results so far. I don't manage a ton of money, but if there are more people like me then someone may find this interesting anyway.Quick Background: I've been lurking this board silently for around 6 years. In April, 2007 I opened up Roth IRAs for my wife and myself at IB. I have been using a blend of popular MI families for all of the funds in these accounts. The exact details of the blend have changed once or twice, but I have always been fully invested in MI screens with monthly holds; no additional timing or allocation strategy.I've been using a quick and dirty spreadsheet to track my portfolio's monthly performance. It tracks the final monthly balance of the portfolio after all dividends, commissions, fees, etc. and compares it to the S&P Total Return Index and the Nasdaq as benchmarks, since I would probably just throw all of the funds into one of those if I got too lazy to trade monthly.This chart and spreadsheet were never meant for anyone else's eyes. You've been warned that it's not pretty. You may notice that the balance fluctuates wildly at times. That's because I made a couple of large withdraws and earlier this year I rolled our old 401(k) money into these accounts. Also note that the entire portfolio was in cash from July 2011 to April 2012. I haven't done as well as I would have done if I hadn't made the withdraws, but I am very happy with my results. I have definitely "beaten" the benchmarks. Without MI, I would almost certainly just be in indexes, so thank you again. Assuming that my math holds up to scrutiny, here are the returns from April 1, 2007 to November 1, 2012:CAGRMe: 12.3%S&P: 2.08%Nasdaq: 3.77%Here is my chart/spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AukKk3-yWS0ydE1...And here is my current blend:http://backtest.org/Latest%20Blend:0511BL(YLDEARNYEAR)13(PIH...
Just wanting to share my results from MI investing. I have been reading this board for several years and have recently opened an account at Folio FN. Here is my method for picking screens, I only use VL screens(so far), I only use screens with at least 5 years post discovery results, also I'm looking for consistency of results over time, not just one or two tremendous years, then a bunch of average or underperforming years. My screens are as follows. Monthly rebalance at first but now im rebalancing about every 2 weeks. Ranks 1-5LOWPE_ZLTDAPEG-Minimalist PIH_CSO_simpleYLDEARNYEAR If there is a stock on YLDEARNYEAR2 that isnt on the original I will add it as well. So I end up with 18-21 stocks usually, I started this 4/17/2012 again, after years of reading here.From 04/17/2012 to 11/23/2012 I have done 10.97 VS S&P 500 2.74 so really nice to see it working for me right away, realizing that wont always be the case.Please post any comments, I do plan on adding Fundamentals in 2013 as it will have 5 years of post discovery performance, what I want to do is add a good SIPRO screen, but dont know which one to choose. Since I'm using window trades, a thinly traded stock doesnt seem to make sense, so suggestions toward that end would be appreciated.
Best Of |
Favorites & Replies |
Start a New Board |
My Fool |