UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (6) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Next Thread
Author: jerryab Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 1955570  
Subject: Real unemployment: 5.75% - 7.03% Sept 2012 Date: 10/5/2012 12:48 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 2
All figures are official BLS numbers, Table B1, Seasonally Adjusted, Sept 2012

Employment Federal State Local Total
(milllions)
Jan-82 2.902 3.646 9.493 16.041
Dec-85 3.051 3.862 9.781 16.694
Dec-89 3.098 4.223 10.754 18.075

Change--4 yrs 0.149 0.216 0.288 0.653
Change--8 yrs 0.196 0.577 1.261 2.034

Jan-10 2.865 5.132 14.482 22.479
Dec-13 2.806 5.060 14.077 21.943

Change--4 yrs (0.059) (0.072) (0.405) (0.536)

Difference:

4-yrs 0.208 0.288 0.693 1.189

Apply 1982-1985 govt job creation to 2010-2013:

Jan-10 2.865 5.132 14.482 22.479
4-yrs 0.208 0.288 0.693 1.189


Unemployed: 12.088 (millions)
Raw UE Rate: 7.8%
Workforce; 154.974 (millions)

US Population Change 1982-2010

1982 232 (million)
2010 310 (million)
Increase: 33.62%

Adjustment 1A: Change in govt employment by Congress
Unemployed: 12.088 Unemployed(millions)
Difference: 1.189 Govt jobs created 1982-1985 by Congress but not created 2010-2013 Congress
Subtotal: 10.899 Unemployed(millions)
Workforce: 154.974 (millions)
UE Rate: 7.03% Sep-12

Adjustment 1B: Add secondary jobs not created (1:1) based on 1A
Unemployed: 12.088 Unemployed(millions)
Difference: 1.189 Govt jobs created by 1982-1985 Congress but not created 2010-2013 Congress
Subtotal: 10.899 Unemployed(millions)
Secondary jobs: 1.189 1:1 ratio, non-govt jobs created 1982-1985 but not created 2010-2013
Subtotal 1B: 9.710 Unemployed(millions)
Workforce: 154.97 (millions)
UE Rate: 6.27% Sep-12

Adjustment 2A: Add population change to 1A
Unemployed: 12.088 (millions)
Difference: 1.589 1982-1985 govt jobs created by Congress adjusted for higher 2010 US population (+33.62%)
Subtotal: 10.499 Unemployed(millions)
Workforce: 154.974 (millions)
UE Rate: 6.77% Sep-12

Adjustment 2B: Add secondary jobs not created (1:1) based on 1B
Unemployed: 12.088 Unemployed(millions)
Difference: 1.589 In millions--1982-1985 govt jobs created by Congress adjusted for higher 2010 US population (+33.62%)
Subtotal: 10.499 Unemployed(millions)
Secondary jobs: 1.589 In millions--1:1 ratio, non-govt jobs created 1982-1985 but not created 2010-2013--adjusted for higher 2010 population
Subtotal 1B: 8.911 Unemployed(millions)
Workforce: 154.97 (millions)
UE Rate: 5.75% Sep-12
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: jerryab Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1821449 of 1955570
Subject: Re: Real unemployment: 5.75% - 7.03% Sept 2012 Date: 10/5/2012 12:49 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
All figures are official BLS numbers, Table B1, Seasonally Adjusted, Sept 2012				
				
Employment	Federal	State	Local	Total
(milllions)				
Jan-82	        2.902 	3.646 	9.493 	16.041 
Dec-85	        3.051 	3.862 	9.781 	16.694 
Dec-89	        3.098 	4.223  10.754 	18.075 
				
Change--4 yrs	0.149 	0.216 	0.288 	 0.653 
Change--8 yrs	0.196 	0.577 	1.261 	 2.034 
				
Jan-10	        2.865 	5.132  14.482   22.479 
Dec-13	        2.806 	5.060  14.077   21.943 
				
Change--4 yrs	(0.059)	(0.072)	(0.405)	(0.536)
				
Difference:				
				
4-yrs	         0.208   0.288 	 0.693 	 1.189 
				
Apply 1982-1985 govt job creation to 2010-2013:				
				
Jan-10	         2.865 	5.132 	14.482 	22.479 
4-yrs	         0.208 	0.288 	 0.693   1.189 
				
				
Unemployed:	12.088 	(millions)		
Raw UE Rate:	 7.8%			
Workforce;     154.974  (millions)		
				
US Population Change 1982-2010				
				
1982	232 	(million)		
2010	310 	(million)		
Increase:	33.62%			
				
Adjustment 1A: Change in govt employment by Congress				
Unemployed:	12.088 	Unemployed(millions)		
Difference:	 1.189 	Govt jobs created 1982-1985 by Congress but not created 2010-2013 Congress		
Subtotal:	10.899 	Unemployed(millions)		
Workforce:     154.974 	(millions)		
UE Rate:	 7.03%	Sep-12		
				
Adjustment 1B: Add secondary jobs not created (1:1) based on 1A				
Unemployed:	12.088 	Unemployed(millions)		
Difference:	 1.189 	Govt jobs created by 1982-1985 Congress but not created 2010-2013 Congress		
Subtotal:	10.899 	Unemployed(millions)		
Secondary jobs:	 1.189	1:1 ratio, non-govt jobs created 1982-1985 but not created 2010-2013		
Subtotal 1B:	 9.710	Unemployed(millions)		
Workforce:      154.97	(millions)		
UE Rate:	 6.27%	Sep-12		
				
Adjustment 2A: Add population change to 1A				
Unemployed:	12.088 	(millions)		
Difference:	 1.589 	1982-1985 govt jobs created by Congress adjusted for higher 2010 US population (+33.62%)		
Subtotal:       10.499 	Unemployed(millions)		
Workforce:     154.974 	(millions)		
UE Rate:	 6.77%	Sep-12		
				
Adjustment 2B: Add secondary jobs not created (1:1) based on 1B				
Unemployed:	12.088 	Unemployed(millions)		
Difference:	 1.589 	In millions--1982-1985 govt jobs created by Congress adjusted for higher 2010 US population (+33.62%)		
Subtotal:	10.499 	Unemployed(millions)		
Secondary jobs:	 1.589	In millions--1:1 ratio, non-govt jobs created 1982-1985 but not created 2010-2013--adjusted for higher 2010 population		
Subtotal 1B:	 8.911	Unemployed(millions)		
Workforce:     154.97	(millions)		
UE Rate:	 5.75%	Sep-12


Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: jerryab Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1821450 of 1955570
Subject: Re: Real unemployment: 5.75% - 7.03% Sept 2012 Date: 10/5/2012 12:51 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
Table data fails to post correctly.

Try this link to METAR: http://boards.fool.com/real-unemployment-575-703-30302323.as...

Print the post Back To Top
Author: cjb44 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1821493 of 1955570
Subject: Re: Real unemployment: 5.75% - 7.03% Sept 2012 Date: 10/5/2012 2:27 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 3
I wonder if the BLS is above reproach? Like how such a small number of new jobs could be affected.

I wonder if top official gave over $10,000 this cycle to Democrat causes. Including the maximum to Obama. That's a lot of money for a government employee.

Oh lookie here, some of top economists are Obama donors. The same people who told you ObamaKare would cost $900Billion (instead of $2.7Trillion) and now working the unemployment numbers 30 days before an election.

Most dishonest piece of garbage to ever be President.

http://freebeacon.com/meet-the-obama-donors-at-the-bls/

Print the post Back To Top
Author: jerryab Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1821539 of 1955570
Subject: Re: Real unemployment: 5.75% - 7.03% Sept 2012 Date: 10/5/2012 4:10 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 1
I wonder if the BLS is above reproach? Like how such a small number of new jobs could be affected.

Their figures are the ones used--and cited by everyone to support their claims. So that means the mud is spread pretty evenly on that matter.

However, my analysis has to do with CONGRESS--not whoever is POTUS.

Since the CLAIM by conservatives is "Reagan got it right", then the failure to create *govt* jobs today is a major contributing factor to the ongoing economic malaise in the US. The adjusted rates I show are the approximate UE rates if Reagan's *govt* employment increase had been maintained today. Obviously, more people working would mean even more jobs in the private sector because govt workers use private sector services and buy private sector goods with their earnings. Then adjust for population increase (which is reasonable), and the unemployment rate drops to 5.75%.

IMO, we are just beginning to see the the impact of the boomer retirement on the workforce job creation meme. The US will no longer require 100k-200k ADDITIONAL new jobs every month--because approximately 300k boomers retire every month. That will continue through Dec 2030.

Print the post Back To Top
Author: HMALETTER Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1821554 of 1955570
Subject: Re: Real unemployment: 5.75% - 7.03% Sept 2012 Date: 10/5/2012 4:55 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 1
I wonder if the BLS is above reproach? Like how such a small number of new jobs could be affected.

I wonder if top official gave over $10,000 this cycle to Democrat causes. Including the maximum to Obama. That's a lot of money for a government employee.

Oh lookie here, some of top economists are Obama donors. The same people who told you ObamaKare would cost $900Billion (instead of $2.7Trillion) and now working the unemployment numbers 30 days before an election.

Most dishonest piece of garbage to ever be President.

http://freebeacon.com/meet-the-obama-donors-at-the-bls/
_____________________

I believe the BLS numbers started to appear inaccurate in late January, 2009.

Print the post Back To Top
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (6) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Next Thread
Advertisement