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Author: telegraph Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 19380  
Subject: Re: Obama's war on consumers Date: 9/12/2013 8:27 PM
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really points to ponder


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Ginko:" Natural gas is far more efficient at producing energy than coal - both to build plants and equipment and also to run. It's by nature a cheaper fuel, so even with any increase, it is still well cheaper than coal."


Yes and no.

Is it 'more efficient'? Based upon what? 39% of all power in the US is generated by coal. It wouldn't be in NG was and HAD been so cheap. It hasn't been.

You have a TEMPORARY glut of natural gas. The price will be double in less than five years.

Then, NG will no longer be 'competitive' with coal.


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Gingko:"- NG planst are far cheaper to build than coal plants - so capital costs are less (which get amortized over life and passed on to consumer)."

Good NG plants still costs hundreds of millions, and new coal plants can be very cost effective. China would not have built 300 new power plants in the past five years if they weren't 'cost effective', now , would they?

Of course, they are paying more for NG....... as we will shortly


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Gingko: - NG is still at only 50% of net generation as opposed to coal, so costs will go down as market shifts to NG from coal over time - as it will as it is cheaper and cleaner and also abundantly supplied by the US. "

No no and no

1) NG is NOW cheaper than coal....but has not been. See

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=10771

It won't be long - maybe 18 months, until NG prices rise and rise and rise. BY 2018, NG will be at least double.

Then coal will be half the price to use for power. All you have is a temporary glut of NG that will have peaked out by 2018 and be dropping after that.

It's a 'bubble' and you have bought into it.

2) Abundand - yes at the CURRENT TIME, but in less than 5 years, those gas wells that drop at 90% output per year.....will hit the Red Queens situation where you can't drill enough new wells each year just to maintain production.

3) It is hard to store NG and have it in the right place at the right time for use. We've already seen winter situations with gas rationing to business during 'cold' winters..... and you'll see a lot more of it when not only are homes heated by NG, but folks get suckered into electric heat/heat pumps.....



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Back in the 1970s, maybe before you were born...there was a major natural gas shortage. Industry shut down and moved overseas. NG was $15/mcf...compared to $3 at the current moment. That spurred the construction of 40 new nuke plants. NG was seen as unreliable.

According to my reading...and I suggest you read up on Bill Powers

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1549032-exploding-the-natura...

So far, he's been right on the money. The Barnett Shale in TX is now struggling...just a decade into it's 'gas forever'......just to maintain production..and it isn't.....despite new wells.......and all the otherh 'shales' will follow the same very fast peak...then fall.

You're setting yourself up for massive fail in 15 years when all your coal plants will be shut down, and at night you are going to be freezing and in the dark because there won't be enough NG to go around, and worse, half of US industry will then move to countries with adequate NG supplies.

Enjoy it while it lasts. 10 years at the most.


t.








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