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Author: Watty56 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 75791  
Subject: Re: I cant take it anymore Date: 1/20/2009 6:22 PM
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....Reference:
January 2009 Stock Allocations...


Be very careful with this link, he was referring to his own web site and in the past there has been a LOT of discussion about his dubious work. Just have you have apparently gotten burned following the MF stock picking you should be skeptical of all postings on the internet that purport to be able to predict the future.

... I did all the right things...

Are you sure?

Did you have the bulk of your retirement money in a well diversified portfolio of mostly low cost index funds with an appropriate amount of bonds?

I’m not a big fan of Jim Cramer on “Mad Money” but I have to give him credit because the few times I have watched his show he has always be clear that the type of investing that he promotes is strictly for your extra “mad money” that you can afford to loose.

... I did all the right things and I have lose near 60% of my money. I 600k is now 300 k...

That is painful but unless you invested a lump sum last fall then I suspect that you are measuring from the market high, not what you actually invested. You need to imagine that you could go back in time and invest in a money market fund instead. Most likely you will still be down, but not nearly by 60%

.... Anybody want to talk me out of this??....

If you move to 100% cash right now you are really making a huge bet on the dollar and inflation. If things get even uglier then diversification might be a better choice than betting everything on the dollar.

There are a lot of ways to go to a more conservative position than to go to all cash.

My crystal ball is broken so any speculation by me about what will happen would be pretty worthless. Just be very careful about longer terms bonds and bond mutual funds. They will be hurt severely if interest rates rise or the dollar falls sharply.

Greg
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