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Author: piranha1 Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 75383  
Subject: Replacing the 4% rule Date: 5/14/2010 4:13 PM
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Several days ago, I asked for help in figuring out a way to increase withdrawals at the start of retirement and decreasing it later.

The answers I got led me to some research papers and allowed me form some conclusions. I'd like to share those with you.

One of the pioneers in establishing the 4% rule was William Bengen. He, along with Johnathon Guyton and William Klinger have done a lot of work in seeing if that amount can be raised.

Guyton and Klinger found that you could significantly raise the initial withdrawal rate, if you put certain checks and balances in the system to rescue your portfolio in down times. The papers are here:

http://www.schulmerichandassoc.com/Using_Decision_Rules_to_C...

http://cornerstonewealthadvisors.com/files/08-06_WebsiteArti...

http://www.fpajournal.org/CurrentIssue/TableofContents/Creat...

A review of the work is here:

http://www.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/retecon/4percent.pdf

Bengen has a pretty pricey book here:

http://www.amazon.com/Conserving-Client-Portfolios-During-Re...

I had thought about buying the book, but decided against it because I'm more interested in the work of Guyton and Klinger for my particular needs.

This led me to this site:

http://www.b-k-ind.com/Retirement_Quant_TM/default.htm

This is Klinger's site and his software lets you runs simulations changing all the variables. You get get a free evaluation copy here, to see if you are interested.

http://www.b-k-ind.com/Retirement_Quant_TM/freeCopy.htm

The one thing this software doesn't have is a spreadsheet or mechanism for adding up your monthly expenses. I used Fidelity's retirement evaluator to get a total amount or you can use Quicken or put it in an Excel spreadsheet.

I'm ordering the software and will figure out my starting withdrawal percentage.

piranha1 (Milt)
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