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Author: TwoCybers Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 76418  
Subject: Re: Question For Intercst...or anyone Date: 2/13/2013 3:42 PM
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ResNullius

Two points -

#1 The idea that you can withdraw 4.0% safely is at best an approximation. I dare say less than 2% of people know the criterion for the SWR in any study.

#2 You have impressed me as somebody who can read and understand. Spend the $65 for this book and read it.
http://www.amazon.com/Conserving-Client-Portfolios-During-Re...
I have been through this book in detail - found only one number that I could not calculate from data provided. Data appears correct.

While Bengen may not have been the creator or the 4% SWR concept, I was not able to find anybody who wrote about this earlier. Google will find a lot of his early work, but this book is the most complete.

Personally, after studying this book, I reached two conclusions. First stock returns for the next 10 years will be a bit less than the historic averages (bond will be worse). And 4% carried more risk that I was willing to accept - for me the magic value is 3.9% or less.

Gordon
Atlanta
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