No. of Recommendations: 5
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No. of Recommendations: 2
There is no reason to expect a year with a loss. If you have such a year, then you need to evaluate what you have done and figure out what went wrong. There is no reason to diversify if it is just picking some of each asset class. The important thing is to be in those asset classes, if any, that are moving up; otherwise to be in cash or a short fund.

Pay attention to what the market is doing, and take advantage of it.
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No. of Recommendations: 18
There is no reason to expect a year with a loss.

If you are going to be investing for a long period of time, you MOST CERTAINLY should expect that there will be years where your accounts suffer a loss. If you are taking any degree of risk, this is a consequence you must be prepared for.

ACME
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No. of Recommendations: 8
If you are going to be investing for a long period of time, you MOST CERTAINLY should expect that there will be years where your accounts suffer a loss.

Maybe for average Joes like you, Acme, but not for super investors like Joel. He told you how to avoid down years- just watch the stocks that are going up and invest in those.

What could possibly be wrong with this reasoning? :)
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Mediocrity is one thing. Being proud of it, or acting as if it were the only option, is another.
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No. of Recommendations: 8
Mediocrity my enemy!

And my diversified, tax and fee minimized portfolio that requires little time to maintain will achieve superior results to 95% of investors, who end up with mediocre returns by falling into a variety of traps (in your case, market timing).
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No. of Recommendations: 7
Dude,

We know you're a trader/market timer/speculator. Thanks. We got that message the first N times you made that clear. This is not a market timing board; it's a retirement *investing* board. You're free to request a "Retirement Trading and Market Timing" board to spout off to your heart's content.

In my years of investing I've never seen a rich speculator. I know one that does, however, have a side job with Orkin, one who sold his BMW 9 months after buying it for a $25k aggregate loss after he couldn't make a margin call, and one that had a breakdown in 2000 when the market bombed. I'm sure your oft quoted methods are the panacea to all of these folks, really, but we're not on this board to discuss it.

Mark, never shorted a stock, never bought and option and has beat the S&P cumulatively over the past 6 years since the first stock purchase enroute to what is now a 6 figure net worth.
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No. of Recommendations: 5

Gentlemen,
How can you be so unkind to poor joelxxxwil? He is simply urging us to use the method of that apocryphal trader Samuel L. Clemens who conquered the market utilizing only one simple rule: "Only buy stocks that are going to go up."

What system could be more self-evident than that?

All those studies comparing actively managed funds to passive index funds that purport to show that index funds beat 95% of actively managed funds? Who believes data?

Joelxxxwil, I would like to make one suggestion to you. You are not appreciated by these philistines. You are probably young and think that you can actually save people from their folly. You can't. This board is organized to discuss retirement investing. You need to begin your own board--something catchy like "The Simple, NO-RISK, Market-Timing, and Technical Analysis Method To Assured and Fabulous Wealth". Then the people who frequent that board might actually be interested in what you had to say (as opposed to the stupid losers on this board).

Save yourself the pain and frustration of trying to save those who do not want to be saved.

With affectionate concern,
Joe
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No. of Recommendations: 0
An interesting article on retirement investing and withdrawal from SmartMoney:

http://yahoo.smartmoney.com/retirement/planning/index.cfm?story=retire2004&afl=myyahoo

Also includes a clickable link to a free "Monte Carlo" - based retirement calculator from T. Rowe Price.

Regards,
Bill
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