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Author: leehjones Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 1443  
Subject: Re: Greetings, Fool! Date: 7/17/2000 11:43 AM
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Rick said:

<<I'm not sure I understand your point, Lee, nobody plays for an infinite time. That's the point, walking away at the right time is more than
half the battle. >>

Au contraire, mon Fool. Walking away at the right time is really *none* of the battle. There will be sessions (goodness knows, I've had 'em) where you lose your first bet, and never get into the black. If you try to walk away with a fixed sized win, then those nasty never-get-ahead sessions will do you in. To the tune of about 1% of your total bets.

<<I play one of your -EV games, craps at maximum odds, and I win because I don't try and break the bank, and I am satisfied when I get
up a certain fraction of my bankroll. I keep good records, BTW, and I'm a scientist who makes a living keeping honest records. >>

For those watching on the side, "odds" is a bet that the casino offers craps players who are betting the pass line (or don't pass line). It has no house (nor player) edge, so the ultimate effect is to reduce the overall house edge on the total money you wager. But not to zero.

I didn't mean to suggest, BTW, that I expect anybody to play for infinite time. My point is that if you continue playing a -EV game, you will in all likelihood lose. No money management system, walk-away-with-a-win system, betting system, or other "system" will beat a -EV game. As Heihojin said, you may beat that game for an hour, a weekend, a year, or perhaps even your whole lifetime (presumably such incredibly lucky people exist). But if you do so, it will be because you're lucky, not because of anything you did.

<< Admitted, it was a lot easier in the days of $1 tables, and it's very difficult now that many tables are $10, >>

I'm afraid I don't follow your argument. Why should the dice care about the color of chips you're betting? If your system works for $1 craps bets, it should work for $10 (or $1,000,000) craps bets.

<<but the fact remains that none of
this can be extrapolated out to infinite time. >>

Actually, the stats guys are a whole lot more accurate when you let them compute their results over eternity :-).

Regards, Lee
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