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RIMM is not coming back. They kicked the can on the new system last December, moving the launch of "10" back nearly a full year. This has to mean there were lots of issues, and it was internally judged "fail."

By the time it launches their share will have declined even more, apps developers won't be terribly interested, the market will have gone by. Carriers will be enamored with the iPhone 5 and the new Microsoft phone, and there will probably be another cool Android or two on the market by Christmas, too.

Once upon a time RIMM had "keyboard", which most people now happily trade in favor of "screen", and "security", which IT managers loved. Apple has had no significant security issues and moving everything through their own store means they are unlikely to, and with a unified OS base they are light years ahead of Android in that department (which is not the most important department, but it is one of the few legacy issues which benefit RIMM.) Presumably Microsoft has awakened to the security issue as well, although we won't know until we know. Still, "security" is an ever duller cudgel, except to a base which increasingly grows more enamored with other toys.

I'd say RIMM will not only never have the same market share, I don't think they'll even sell as many handsets, even in a hypergrowth market. They're over, which is not to say they won't sell anything; there will be corporate sales, ever declining, for a while, but they're on a slow (or maybe fast) road to oblivion.

Seriously. Doneski.
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