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Rus I think you are asked a bad question. I don't care what withdraw rate this historical data say a 70% fixed portfolio would support for the last 30 years - it can't happen for the next 30 years.

During the last 30 years interest rates have fallen in the range of 10 percentage points. As interest rates fall, the face value of a fixed income instrument increases. People can disagree about future inflation and/or interest rates over the next 20 years, but there is no argument the 10 year Treasury bond rate will not be negative in your life time. And in the event rate climbs five or ten percentage points, fixed income paper may be worth less than toilet paper.

I don't doubt for a second that interest rates are on the rise. How high up is hard to say. I got my first mortgage in 1980, which was about as bad as bad could be in terms of high interest rates. Could rates keep going up from here for the next 10-20 years? Of course they could. Could they skyrocket over a much shorter term? Of course they could. What will happen to the equity market when rates go up? Nothing good that's for sure. I don't know exactly what to do, but I'm trying to get small and conservative, hence the 70% in short and intermediate investment grade. If I see a clear pattern that the skyrocket is taking off, then I plan to move my fixed money into the MM, then wait until we hit the top and actually start back down. Then I'll buy intermediate and long investment grade. I might miss the first step or two, but I doubt I'll miss out on the whole multi-year move. I don't believe in timing the market, but with interest rates, I might have to unless the government finds a way to become fiscally responsible, which I doubt will happen. Beyond this, I know not. I'm fully retired now, so I need to protect my portfolio for myself and my wife, who likely will outlive me by a couple of decades.
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