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Author: goodnessgracious Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 163  
Subject: Re: arbitrage Date: 1/26/2004 2:05 PM
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Ryan,

You make some excellent points. My calculations are similar. I would add, maybe, a 1% chance of getting a better price, say $30, but it doesn't make much difference to the overall calculation, say another 4 cents. I would also have put the probability of the deal not going thru somewhat lower, about 2%, but the subsequent price drop could well be more than a dollar, as Tilson suggests the last few months drift up may have something to do with the auction. I wouldn't be too upset to get 'stuck' with these shares, though, even if they dropped a bit.

As for the return, since I have been moving my portfolio to cash anyways, a 5% return is OK by me, since the alternative is about a 1% return on GIC's.

I would add one more negative factor, which is that I lock up the cash for all that time. If the market were to crash and offer some nice opportunities prior to the deal closing, then I might not be able to sell what will become a very illiquid position.

Thanks for your insight, gg
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