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Author: ubn Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 217056  
Subject: Re: 40% Overvalued Date: 10/8/2012 3:38 PM
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S&P is at least 57% overvalued

Lets go with this train of thought

1. S&P is representative of the overall market
2. Generally DOW matches S&P 500 price / value - as per Ben Graham
3. S&P is 60% overvalued
4. S&P is 1450 - so if it were to drop by 40% if would be at 870
5. Not all Dow stocks are overvalued by same amount
6. Therefore some DOW stocks are more overvalued
7. This overvaluation for these "some" DOW stocks has to be more than 60% to compensate for those that are not overvalued (probably more to account for time and the swing in the other direction)

So one should be easily be able to identify about 10 DOW stocks (out of 50) that need to drop by approx 60% to reach fair value ? If you cannot, then the S&P overvaluation logic is inaccurate and flawed.

Note: Because we are saying fair value, so you cannot account for recession and have to assume normal GDP growth (~2-3%)
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