S&P is at least 57% overvaluedLets go with this train of thought1. S&P is representative of the overall market2. Generally DOW matches S&P 500 price / value - as per Ben Graham3. S&P is 60% overvalued4. S&P is 1450 - so if it were to drop by 40% if would be at 8705. Not all Dow stocks are overvalued by same amount6. Therefore some DOW stocks are more overvalued7. This overvaluation for these "some" DOW stocks has to be more than 60% to compensate for those that are not overvalued (probably more to account for time and the swing in the other direction)So one should be easily be able to identify about 10 DOW stocks (out of 50) that need to drop by approx 60% to reach fair value ? If you cannot, then the S&P overvaluation logic is inaccurate and flawed.Note: Because we are saying fair value, so you cannot account for recession and have to assume normal GDP growth (~2-3%)
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