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Author: TMFSarahGen Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Ticker Guide Supernova Odyssey 1
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Subject: Re: Positive review in Investopedia Date: 5/29/2008 5:37 PM
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Sarah, any idea why BARE continues to fall? Thanks, Tom

Man, you're a tough one Tom! BARE's been up three days in a row. And its move today brought it above its price 9 trading days ago.

I think it's all physics - momentum. A body at rest tends to stay at rest. A body in motion tends to stay in motion. And BARE has tended to be selling off, so therefore it continues to sell off.

And stocks have the extra bonus of trading with:
a) the market
b) their sector

I think that BARE is night-and-day different from AVP (Avon), EL (Estee Lauder), ARDEN (Elizabeth Arden), REV (Revlon), etc., but guess who all were up today? Yep, every single one of them.

Without new news, BARE is going to trade with the market and with its sector. I wish that weren't the case, but I think that's the story.

We have some near term upside as it was overly sold off before and after earnings. So that easily takes us back to 21, 22, maybe even 23 or 24 in short order. OK, what then?

I think the most excitement in the BARE stock price is going to be at the earnings that have the worst quarter from last year as a comp. And that means next quarter - last year they reported August 1st.

Remember BARE's story over the last year was a story of transition of margin compression as they switched from most sales in the highest margin area (infomercials) to most sales being in the lowest margin area (wholesale - selling through Nordstrom, Macy's, boutiques, QVC, etc).

So August last year was the first quarter they reported with the lower margins.

So I don't know how boring (or not) this quarter is going to be, but I would definitely be looking to get in before the end of July or next earnings. There's a new infomercial which should raise those sales, but even if they aren't higher, the lower margins are the assumption. It's all good from here imo.

Sarah
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