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Author: TMFGebinr Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Supernova Phoenix 1
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Subject: Screen results Date: 12/8/2010 11:38 AM
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Hi everyone,

So over the weekend, I got TTM FCF, share count, and recent price data for the over 2800 companies in the Russell 3000 index. I then (automatically!!) generated a predicted price assuming a 5.0 / 2.5 / 0 growth pattern. (Remember, that's shorthand for % CAGR for first five years / % CAGR second five years / Terminal growth rate.)

Then I scanned through the list to see what companies had prices higher than the latest. There were a lot of financial firms -- banks and insurance companies primarily -- on the list, but also a bunch that were in other industries. (I ignored those financial firms.) Microsoft wasn't on the resulting list because the latest numbers are 6.1 / 3.1 / 2.5. But, Oshkosh and Power-One were on the list. (Transocean wasn't though, because it's not a member of the index.)

Here's what came through, and what MUE growth rates are expected at last night's close, at a 15% discount rate.

Company Ticker Expectation
Boise BZ -18.9 / -9.5 / 0
Cabela's CAB 2.4 / 1.4 / 0
Dean Foods DF -5.8 / -2.8 / 0
Domtar UFS -14.6 / -8.3 / 0
Dr Pepper DPS -2.7 / -1.4 / 0
Excel Maritime EXM -5.0 / -2.5 / 0
Helen of Troy HELE 0.7 / 0.4 / 0
Kratos Defense KTOS -0.2 / -0.1 / 0
L-3 Comm. LLL -0.4 / -0.2 / 0
Lexmark LXK -1.3 / -0.7 / 0
Micron Tech. MU -15.9 / -7.9 / 0
Noranda Alum. NOR -14.4 / -7.2 / 0
NRG Energy NRG -13.0 / -6.5 / 0
Pulte Group PHM -24.8 /-12.4 / 0
Safeway SWY -2.1 / -1.1 / 0
Sprint Nextel S -7.3 / -3.6 / 0
Sunoco SUN -0.7 / -0.4 / 0
Supervalu SVU -23.9 /-12.0 / 0
Textron TXT -1.6 / -0.8 / 0
Unisys UIS -5.1 / -2.6 / 0
Verizon VZ -4.4 / -2.2 / 0
Western Digital WDC 1.3 / 0.6 / 0

An interesting list and it covers quite a range of industries.

Cheers,
Jim
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Author: TMFScarletGray Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Home Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 81 of 1163
Subject: Re: Screen results Date: 12/8/2010 1:35 PM
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DPS is interesting. I like the high ROE in beverage companies although I do not know much about the current state of the company.

Einhorn was just talking up his recent investment in Sprint, although Inside Investor was just talking down their investment in Sprint.

L3 - Not the biggest fan of defense companies and due to some comments from some software engineers that worked at L3 for years, I'm not sure that the culture is like a company I would invest in.

I believe Dean Foods was recently mentioned on the Deranged Monkey board about a possibility of a lessening of pricing pressure currently weighing down the company. This one maybe another interesting candidate.

Buffett recently sold out of his stake of NRG if memory serves. What that tells me, I don't know, but you get what you pay for :)

Seth Jayson likes SVU currently, but I'm sure you knew that one also.

If you are looking for a thesis on Safeway, I think V. Katsenelson wrote one up in 2009 and is probably available on his blog:
http://contrarianedge.com/2009/01/08/super-value-in-grocerie...

Cheers,
Matt

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Author: nonzerosum One star, 50 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 99 of 1163
Subject: Re: Screen results Date: 12/13/2010 2:58 PM
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Thanks, very nice screen.

I bought MU recently. Very cyclical business, of course, that's the danger. But gobs of cash recently, and several positive Fool articles.

I also bought WDC together with their solid state rivals, SNDK, STEC, which I also think are cheap (or "were" - they popped nicely). Storage won't go away with video and multimedia, so I think the market is pricing too much margin erosion into them.

tj

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Author: TMFGebinr Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Supernova Phoenix 1
Mission Team Member CAPS All Star SC1 Red Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 101 of 1163
Subject: Re: Screen results Date: 12/13/2010 4:30 PM
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Storage won't go away with video and multimedia, so I think the market is pricing too much margin erosion into them.

Hi tj,

Good point, there. Especially as more and more material moves to the cloud. The cloud has to live somewhere, after all.

Cheers,
Jim

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