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Author: H2OBURY Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 251809  
Subject: Screens vs timing - or both. Date: 12/10/2012 12:40 PM
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I have been investing using MI with screens since 1998, and I do not know exactly when or why, but I seem to have gotten away from our MI screens and more into basic ETF's using our well discussed timing indicators. Perhaps living through two crashes has made me more conservative in my middle age.

Anyone else doing the same?
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Author: LonghornBoy Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 240508 of 251809
Subject: Re: Screens vs timing - or both. Date: 12/10/2012 3:50 PM
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using our well discussed timing indicators.

Are you referring to the three bear catchers; or are there others on your list that you're using? As for the bear catchers, they do a nice job of helping to control volatility, but do only a fair job of enhancing returns...

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Author: Rayvt Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 240510 of 251809
Subject: Re: Screens vs timing - or both. Date: 12/10/2012 4:56 PM
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Yes. But I'm a simple kind of guy. No timing indicators with sexy names, no fancy dancing. Just plain simple 43-week SMA of the S&P500 with a little bit of hysteresis to reduce whipsaws.

Easy to compute, uses a well-known and readily available -- and historically available! -- set of data. I've also looked at using other indexes like Russell 3000 & 2000, and the the signals differ only rarely, and then only shift the signal onset by a week or two.

When I'm feeling masochistic, I go back and re-compute what my portfolios would be worth if I had been using this timing overlay on top of my MI screens.

Although on the whole, the main benefit has been to reduce the drawdowns rather than to increase the total returns.

Although in one particular case whose details I won't mention, the account would have been up 30% since I retired in 2006, rather than the down 2% that it is without the timing. ;-(

There's a lot to be said for sitting in cash when the broad market is in a demonstrable decline.

'course, using timing you'd have missed out on the rather large gains in many of the MI screens from Jan'08 to the Sept'08 peak -- so if you aren't EXTREMELY rigorous, you risk bailing out of your timing system just in time to catch the crash that went from Sept'08 to Mar'09.

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Author: hiphop One star, 50 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 240517 of 251809
Subject: Re: Screens vs timing - or both. Date: 12/11/2012 2:19 PM
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Yes. But I'm a simple kind of guy. No timing indicators with sexy names, no fancy dancing. Just plain simple 43-week SMA of the S&P500 with a little bit of hysteresis to reduce whipsaws.

Have you looked at the 43-week SMA of individual screens? Seems this would be an interesting backtest.

Also, does anyone know a website that can do SMA of a portfolio of stocks, rather than just the indices or a single stock.

Thanks, Gabriel.

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Author: Rayvt Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 240519 of 251809
Subject: Re: Screens vs timing - or both. Date: 12/11/2012 7:39 PM
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Have you looked at the 43-week SMA of individual screens? Seems this would be an interesting backtest.

Yeah, I have. And it gets *really* complicated. Like...how do you compute the SMA of a portfolio that doesn't hold any stocks? I guess you could set up a paper portfolio and use paper trades in it -- but I could it quite likely for you to abandon the effort real quick.

And all-in-all it doesn't really matter. The truth is that when the broad market is diving over a cliff, the best place to be is in cash, until the dust settles.

a website that can do SMA of a portfolio of stocks, rather than just the indices or a single stock.
For any serious work, you really need to do it yourself. I use Excel for all this kind of work.

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Author: FlyingCircus Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 240550 of 251809
Subject: Re: Screens vs timing - or both. Date: 12/14/2012 9:35 PM
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Both.

Blend of top 3 screens working recently based on RS1m & 3M (13 wk). Usually, it's just MicroMo, PIH_cso_safe and some other hot style screen.

YEY. Always, forever.

Most of the rest of the screens are useless. Literally. As RayVT said - nothing spells "Fun" like losing 25% of your money in a screen in one month. It happens all. the. time.

Driven by bear catchers. BCs on, out of the market. No questions asked.

And asset allocations - ETFs - driven by 33 week moving averages (cash/long) per asset class (foreign developed, emerging mkt, commodity, bonds, real estate, foreign real estate, large cap, small cap.)

And summer seasonal. Sell in May and go away.

I continue to use a few screens because despite all evidence to the contrary I want an MI screen approach to outperform, and the 2x/3x leveraged ETF game is a dangerous one to play when one has an extremely demanding 50 hour a week day job.

FC

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Author: mark19601962 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 240554 of 251809
Subject: Re: Screens vs timing - or both. Date: 12/14/2012 10:11 PM
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I thought most people did out perform the market by a few points using screens. All the surveys of results I have seen have shown that. (surveys on this board).

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Author: Rayvt Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 240556 of 251809
Subject: Re: Screens vs timing - or both. Date: 12/14/2012 11:49 PM
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I thought most people did out perform the market by a few points using screens. All the surveys of results I have seen have shown that. (surveys on this board).

Surveys here are meaningless. As are virtually all surveys & polls on internet sites. The people who respond are a self-selected group, and are not representative.

And in the case of the MI board, it's only people who have made above average returns. The people who lost money are long gone and don't visit here anymore and aren't around to give their survey answer of "underperformed".

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Author: Rayvt Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 240557 of 251809
Subject: Re: Screens vs timing - or both. Date: 12/14/2012 11:57 PM
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I continue to use a few screens because despite all evidence to the contrary I want an MI screen approach to outperform, and the 2x/3x leveraged ETF game is a dangerous one to play when one has an extremely demanding 50 hour a week day job.

Everything after "one" should be omitted.

There are a lot of mechanical strategies other than the ones posted here, and a lot of mechanical strategies that pick from other pools than Value Line lists.

At the risk of adding more competition, here's one: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2042750
It's a darned hard read, though.

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Author: mark19601962 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 240558 of 251809
Subject: Re: Screens vs timing - or both. Date: 12/15/2012 10:18 AM
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There is a survivorship bias in these surveys. However, if a screen has performed well post discovery, then unless the backtesters don't work, that should indicate the screens work.

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