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Author: Fuma102 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 192  
Subject: SGEN, re-eval Date: 8/9/2011 3:56 PM
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think it might still be over valued with a 1.5b cap until SGN75 pushes out good P2 data in RCC, adcentris isnt bringing in much for awhile (I dont see more than 100-200m). catalysts included Aug 30 FDA meeting for adcentris, ASH conference in september but more likely ASCO data next year for RCC.


Adcentris

-75% of Hodgkin’s Lymphoma patients seeing their tumors shrink at least 50%.
-In ALCL, 87% of patients saw their tumors shrink at least 50% and 97% of patients saw their tumors shrink at least some. In both cases, patients receiving brentuximab vedotin had already failed multiple other treatments. Complete remission in 57% of patients.
-unanimous recs for approval, despite only P2 study, FDA meeting Aug 30, 2011
-plan to initiate P2 trial on CD30+ non-hodgkins, and on other CD30+ tumors
-enrollment underway for cutaneous Tcell lymphoma

-p1 for frontline with ABVD for HL
-p3 aethera in HL pts with stem cell transplant and at risk of relapse.

- in the US: 8500 new HL cases in 2010, 2000 with ALCL, up to 30% relapse / refractory
-dosing q3wks for one yr. Most grade 1 or 2 adrs

-50/50 cost with MLNM, SGEN in US & canada, MLNM gets rest of world – minus 15-25% tiered royalties to SGEN

SGN75
-induces response in pretreated RCC & NHL (about half of patients had stable or partial responses, but only out of 26 patients), continued enrollment
-currently in dose escalating trials
- current RCC meds suck (sutent, mTORs, Avastin). Extend life about 30% of time, ADRs typically >30% of time, PFS from 4mo to 9mo, and from 5mo to 11mo.
- could potentially be best in class, and should progress quickly given how short lifespan is once diagnosed.
-58,000 kidney cancers in 2010, NHL 66,000 in 2010



ASG-5ME and ASG-22ME
-pancreatic & prostate cancer, 50/50 with Agensys (astellas)
-in P1

Potential income,
-Adcentris: 2000-8000 pts for Adcentris at 80K (most mabs are 60K, Ive seen as high estimates as 100k for adcentris treatment). 2000 x 80k =160m in the US that goes to SGEN.
-SGN75, OTOH, has potential, but I need to see a P2 update before I get excited. Wholly owned at this point, has blockbuster potential pending P2, if results stay in line with the small scale P1. To be watched at ASH in September or at ASCO next year (more likely).
-Agensys collaboration, who knows. They arent exactly zeroing in on anything in particular yet.


-stopped SGN40, SGN70 (single mab, not linked).
-420m on hand, expect to have 300m at year end.... cash for two years, they'll probably partner SGN75 by that time.
-competition: pfizer has P3 linker for HL; MEDX has antiCD30 program in P2.

Bottom line... I can wait for it to go down a bit more and for SGN75 to publish P2 studies. Even still, a triple or is kind of hard to see from here unless they start pushing out more candidates.


Sources:

http://www.dailyfinance.com/rtn/pr/seattle-genetics-reports-...

http://www.asco.org/ASCOv2/Home/Education%20&%20Training...

http://www.asco.org/ASCOv2/Meetings/Abstracts&vmview=abs...
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