Shepherd and Trout, who have a $40 price target on Microsoft shares, write that the release of Windows 8 by Microsoft on October 26th will solve a lot of problems for Microsoft, including how it deals with the consumer PC buying market:This is an uber optimistic view, I think. I don't know what the compelling reason is that users will upgrade to Windows 8, except that it is similar, perhaps even "compatible" with Windows phones and tablets, none of which anybody yet owns.In the meantime it presents an entirely new desktop and learning curve to users which may or may not be well accepted, and in fact which may or may not work better than what they're already used to.Will Windows 8 show up on desktops? Of course. Some early adopters will buy, and new machines will ship with it, and eventually it may gain a foothold (or it may be a big hit right out of the box, except that unlike Vista, most users are content with 7, I think), but in the Windows world that upgrade cycle can take forever. Will IT department managers rush out to upgrade? I'm skeptical.I do understand how it pushes into the device market, except it's being sold on PC's and if it doesn't gain traction there quickly it's dead, and I don't see how it accelerated the transition to a subscription based software model, but then I haven't paid very close attention to that part of the hype.Are they right? I have no idea, but it seems the prediction is based more on dreams than on any substantive analysis of users, preferences, costs, revenues, or much of anything else.
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