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Author: Jim2B Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 757686  
Subject: Re: Nate Silver to Joe Scarborough: Wanna Bet? Date: 11/1/2012 12:16 PM
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Silver has spent the week firing back, criticizing political pundits for not understanding how odds and probability work and aggressively defending his method against critics. As the week has progressed, his model has only shown Obama's chances of winning increasing, which has not coincidentally increased Silver's confidence in the outcome. (As of this morning, Five Thirty Eight gives Obama a 79 percent chance of winning, with a final Electoral College total over 300.)

If Nate were both confident in his model AND understood odds & probability, he'd offer $3000 to Joel's $1000.

By only offering Joel $1000 : $1000, Nate is essentially agreeing with Joel that Obama only has a 50 : 50 proposition of winning.

Wow! Even the Obama supporters / butt kissers who claim otherwise really don't believe Obama has this in the bag.
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