Silver has spent the week firing back, criticizing political pundits for not understanding how odds and probability work and aggressively defending his method against critics. As the week has progressed, his model has only shown Obama's chances of winning increasing, which has not coincidentally increased Silver's confidence in the outcome. (As of this morning, Five Thirty Eight gives Obama a 79 percent chance of winning, with a final Electoral College total over 300.)If Nate were both confident in his model AND understood odds & probability, he'd offer $3000 to Joel's $1000.By only offering Joel $1000 : $1000, Nate is essentially agreeing with Joel that Obama only has a 50 : 50 proposition of winning.Wow! Even the Obama supporters / butt kissers who claim otherwise really don't believe Obama has this in the bag.
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