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Author: jck101 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 58914  
Subject: Re: Storehouse of Siberian Greenhouse Gases Open Date: 12/13/2012 9:47 PM
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Since I'm famous in this thread I thought it would be interesting to revisit:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,547976,00.h...

It's always been a disturbing what-if scenario for climate researchers: Gas hydrates stored in the Arctic ocean floor -- hard clumps of ice and methane, conserved by freezing temperatures and high pressure -- could grow unstable and release massive amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Since methane is a potent greenhouse gas, more worrisome than carbon dioxide, the result would be a drastic acceleration of global warming. Until now this idea was mostly academic; scientists had warned that such a thing could happen. Now it seems more likely that it will.

Anyway, that was the story in 2008. What about more recently?

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/14/methane-time-bo...

[B]ased on what we see in the atmosphere, there is no evidence of substantial increases in methane emissions from the Arctic in the past 20 years.
This all builds on what I was told in 2010, when I last visited the question of methane releases from Arctic seas. (There’s an entirely different set of questions, also with relatively reassuring answers, about the vast amounts of methane locked in permafrost on land.) I urge you to read, and pass around, the 2010 post — “The Heat Over Bubbling Arctic Methane.”

So the next time you see a “science stunner” about Arctic methane time bombs, reach out to a couple of scientists working on this gas before you run to the ramparts.


In this case Revkin's article seems to be a reasonable summary of the arctic methane situation. So, looks like that hasn't panned out in the last 4.5 years. Maybe if we wait another 25.5 it'll happen.
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