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So far as "the Pros" being "caught with their pants down in 2008-2009", that simple trade on IWM by the (8,55) EMA crossover gained about 15% during those 2 years, whereas IWM was down about the same amount during that period. Those results do not include trading costs, but there are only 11 trades, so on a $20,000 account the total cost is about .5%, depending on what discount broker you use.

I don't know what (or if) "the Pros" were thinking.

maybe depends on your def. of 'Pro' ..

i still had an account at a full-serve borker that my Mom had left me.
most of it in managed funds..

if by 'Pro', one means the fund managers ,i don't know what they were thinking .

if 'Pro' is full-on brokers -- they were thinking it was a 'minor correction'.
i think every week it would go down, i call and ask, "should we sell?"
"O no. we've hit bottom"

( i'm less 'mechanical' and more 'seat of the pants' ..but agree with you about Timing )
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