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So if one were to look at your data, what would the value of X be? Perhaps the value that eliminates the bottom 10% by ROE? Do you know what this value was on average in your test?
Looks like it's generally the negative numbers, which are more common that I suspected. Fraction of population of 1700 Value Line stocks by ROE since Jan 1997.
10.2% negative 4.6% zero or unpopulated 1.1% from 0 to 1 1.4% from 1 to 2 1.6% from 2 to 3 1.9% from 3 to 4 2.3% from 4 to 5 2.6% from 5 to 6 3.3% from 6 to 7 3.5% from 7 to 8 4.1% from 8 to 9 4.6% from 9 to 10 4.8% from 10 to 11 4.9% from 11 to 12 5.1% from 12 to 13 4.6% from 13 to 14 4.2% from 14 to 15 4.0% from 15 to 16 3.4% from 16 to 17 3.0% from 17 to 18 2.9% from 18 to 19 2.5% from 19 to 20 2.0% from 20 to 21 1.8% from 21 to 22 1.7% from 22 to 23 1.5% from 23 to 24 1.2% from 24 to 25 1.0% from 25 to 26 0.9% from 26 to 27 0.8% from 27 to 28 0.7% from 28 to 29 0.6% from 29 to 30 0.6% from 30 to 31 0.4% from 31 to 32 0.4% from 32 to 33 0.4% from 33 to 34 0.4% from 34 to 35 0.3% from 35 to 36 0.3% from 36 to 37 0.2% from 37 to 38 0.2% from 38 to 39 0.2% from 39 to 40 3.9% over 40 To recap the returns Negative ROE = 6.11%/year Zero or unknown ROE = 10.56%/year Lower half of positive ROE = 11.52%/year Top half of positive ROE = 12.77%/year
Bad negative numbers aren't worse than small negative numbers. The lowest returns are simply the subset "<0". If you wanted the highest return 30 stock portfolio given only the ROE field you'd choose the 30 stocks with ROE closest to 32%, which gives 15.6%/year before trading costs, perhaps a bit of a lucky outlier. I guess there are a few absurdly high ROE values that are a bad omen? A monthly-constituted portfolio of all stocks 35% ROE or better returned 12.6%.
Jim
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