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Author: AcmeFool Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 76398  
Subject: Re: Vanguard REIT 0123 Date: 10/14/2007 8:47 PM
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So let's take the Dow from 1994 where it was around 4k. It would have to get to 40k by 2024 for it to be a tenbagger in 30 years. Today, the Dow would have to go to 140,000 by 2037 to do that. The S&P would have to get to 15,000.

The last occurance of this that I know of was the S&P from the early 70s through 2000 where it went from 90 to 1400 - but then it lost much of that in just a few months. Maybe the international indexes have done it more often.


I'm late to this discussion, but your analysis is highly flawed because the index values do not account for the gains due to dividends. Adding these in would greatly change the numbers.

As has already been indicated, it takes less than an 8% annualized return to realize a 10-bagger in 30 years. There are very few 30-year periods over the last century where the US market did not average 8%/yr.

Acme
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