No. of Recommendations: 1
So, rephrasing my question above: does anyone on this board still follow the conventional wisdom that you should have a certain percentage of bonds or bond funds in your portfolio for downside protection? If not, what do you have instead?

Yes, I'm about 33% in bonds. Some are very short duration (cash), some are I-Bonds, some are "regular" bonds and some are floating rate bonds. With interest rates having (almost) nowhere to go but up, rising rates would hurt bond prices. But, that statement has been true for several years and the crash hasn't happened, so what do I know? You need something uncorrelated to stocks to act as a counterpoint, especially right now, and especially if you are in a position to need the money during a stock market pull-back.

Re: Stock market timing:
1. Not everybody tells the truth or the whole my neighbor that day trader who only recalled his gains and never his losses (or expenses)
2. If someone's been doing it for only eight years, it's easy to make good calls in an almost continuously rising market
3. If you get enough people together, SOMEONE will correctly call ten successive coin flips, but have no greater likelihood of calling the next one
4. If someone really is that good, I don't know that *I* could do it, or even have the skill/guts to follow his/her method
5. I guess rebalancing an asset allocation is sort of market timing because you sell high(er) and buy low(er) programmatically...just not all at the extreme highs and lows.
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