Some technicians would say that the SPX has broken out. I am looking for a reversal here. The DOW has a target of 16000. While there are very good reasons to be bullish on a long term bull market (20 years) historically bears last 18 years or so, longer for real estate led deflationary depressions. We may see a summer rally here, but it should be taken with a grain of salt, the drag from de- militarization and the sequestration will have a ripple effect. On the other hand, there is some serious activity in the oil industry that is wide spread and employes a lot of labor. Additionally this activity seems to be spreading into larger and larger geographic areas. I.E. we saw e exploration people as for south as the border of the Big Bend area in Texas. This is not a traditional oil area. (Also they will NOT, use water for fracking, unless it is piped in from the ocean.)Unlike the beginning of the last century when oil, and minerals were geographically located, technology seems to democratizing the production of minerals. This does not mean the price of energy or other minerals will go down. No the cost to extract will remain high and I expect the velocity of money to increase. Except that the current iteration of the Euro is untenable, most currencies will actually become somewhat stable. I haven't studied the Brazilian currency, don't even remember the name anymore, but from the news reports I am getting I suspect that Brazil will tend to be more stable going forward.The same with Chili, Australia, Canada, China, Russia, India, and the U. S.The only big problem remaining in international trade, other than the Euro, is the massive imbalance of trade that China runs. CheersQazulight
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